TotalRoundTable: Moving to Kinect to the Wii
Debating, contemplating, and enumerating Kinect, Move, and the Wii.
Published: July 24, 2010
Sam:
Eh, Nintendo won't drop the price, because they don't really have to. Even with any extra sales that might get picked up from Move/Kinect, the Wii is still going to outsell both the systems, I'm sure. Nintendo doesn't have to do anything; they're literally coasting through the rest of this year, and the black Wii will carry them just fine. Microsoft might try playing the price game with Nintendo, but Sony's not going anywhere. They're doing just fine right now; they are finally making a profit, and Move on top of that is helping them crawl slowly into the black. Between every PS3 finally making money – however small – the margins on Move, sales from Home (which are significant), and the PlayStation Store, I think there are enough revenue channels to keep funneling some cash the division's way to keep investors happy. After a few years of major losses, I would think Stringer just wants to keep everyone happy and continue on the comeback trail.
Plus, there is always the simple feature breakdown: the PS3 has Blu-ray and free online, and always will, something Microsoft can't really compete with at this point. I think Sony is quite happy with price points and such. They're going to ride this momentum horse and spur it a bit with Move and 3D as best they can, but I don't see a price drop happening unless Move sales are shit. Now, the PSP... Yeah, that I could see getting a maaajor price cut at this point. The Go is still at the same price it was when the system launched, like, six years ago. How's that for unflinching prices?
MNK:
I'll bet you the first round of drinks at next year's E3: Nintendo will drop the price this year, most likely in September.
Sir Gordon Wheelmeier, gaming guru:
Snipers.
Actually, I agree with Sam about Nintendo not dropping its price until it has to. I think Microsoft is in a better pitch situation than Sony in this case – it can rely on saying that $300 will get you an Xbox and Kinect and supports multiplayer right out of the box. That's a big one for budget-conscious families looking for something that little Johnny, as well as the rest of the family, can enjoy. And even though it's actually much more limited in terms of what genres it can properly support, the Kinect will also seem more advanced to many casual buyers.
But, if people pick up on the Move well enough for it to be included as optional controls in most every shipping PS3 game (it's not a ton of extra work, in most cases), then the Move may have a much longer and more well-supported shelf life. The Move is clearly better for most things for the three of us, and the PS Eye itself picks up a lot of the other slack, but who knows what'll happen after marketing dollars start being spent.
Here's the wildcard, though – if COD ships with good Move support but no Kinect support, that may give Sony a massive early head-start.
MNK:
Y'know, that's something I've never thought of before – what if Sony pulls a Microsoft and gets exclusive Move compatibility with a major title like Call of Duty or Bungie's Next Big Thing? It's extremely plausible, given the company's bevy of E3 announcements. The exclusive collector's editions of Dead Space and Medal of Honor are, of themselves, enough to point in this direction – particularly given the Move remake of the Wii title.
Still... I can't shake the feeling that neither Kinect nor Move will move (heh) nearly as many units as the manufacturers want. It'll be enough to hold everyone over until 2012, sure, and the peripherals will probably be enough to significantly recast the very premises of the 720 and PS4, but an overwhelming sales success, at least here in America? Nah.
Sam:
Very, very few peripherals have been runaway successes – and the ones that have been this gen are on Nintendo systems. I would imagine both parties are looking at realistic benchmarks for success on things (as in hitting a million before the end of the holidays would be huge), but like Wheelmeier was saying, it’s going to come down to how much paper either of the companies is willing to throw at things. It seems very much like Microsoft is going to completely re-position their system to go up against the Wii and try to grab the more passive crowd. They’ll always have a funnel of third-party games that play right to the system’s core because no publisher these days is going to realistically look at the cost to make games and opt to go exclusive to one HD system, unless it’s a downloadable title.
For what it’s worth, I think Sony’s particular strategy, in the short term, is fantastic; they know who helped build up their numbers and they’re pushing Move toward them rather than trying to scoop up the Wii crowd explicitly – at least on the level that MS is. Of course, I love Sony’s strategy because it’s clearly trying to take the tech that made the Wii such a different experience and trying to improve on it by going, “Look, you can still play the games you like in a new way.” After seeing the kind of precision that it has, I’m eager to see how far that’ll go. For that matter, I’d love to see what is done with Kinect because, if properly embraced, it’ll be markedly different from what we’ve seen so far. In short, I think the next few years will be kind of a neat peek into what we’ll see happening next gen, and, at least this way, when we do see new hardware, a lot of the motion control stuff will have gotten past its growing pains. All three successors will benefit, and we all win!
Sir Gordon:
I agree with a lot of what's been said in terms of sales strategies and all that, but what's kind of alarming about this entire motion control fad is that it's just that: a fad. Families saw the Wii, realized they could all play Wii Sports bowling, remembered that the "Nintendo" was fun when the kids were growing up, and figured that it might be nice to have something new to do, as TV largely sucks these days.
Yes, the Wii is still selling, but at some point, and I'm willing to be it's sooner than later, anyone who has been interested in getting a console for casual gaming will have done so. No one who bought the Wii as their first system since the NES or thereabouts (like many parents) are going to buy a PS3 or Xbox 360 to get in on their motion control options. The Kinect and Move may do okay, but they're not going to create the next big input revolution, ala the analog stick.
I want it to be all about the graphics again...
Eh, Nintendo won't drop the price, because they don't really have to. Even with any extra sales that might get picked up from Move/Kinect, the Wii is still going to outsell both the systems, I'm sure. Nintendo doesn't have to do anything; they're literally coasting through the rest of this year, and the black Wii will carry them just fine. Microsoft might try playing the price game with Nintendo, but Sony's not going anywhere. They're doing just fine right now; they are finally making a profit, and Move on top of that is helping them crawl slowly into the black. Between every PS3 finally making money – however small – the margins on Move, sales from Home (which are significant), and the PlayStation Store, I think there are enough revenue channels to keep funneling some cash the division's way to keep investors happy. After a few years of major losses, I would think Stringer just wants to keep everyone happy and continue on the comeback trail.
Plus, there is always the simple feature breakdown: the PS3 has Blu-ray and free online, and always will, something Microsoft can't really compete with at this point. I think Sony is quite happy with price points and such. They're going to ride this momentum horse and spur it a bit with Move and 3D as best they can, but I don't see a price drop happening unless Move sales are shit. Now, the PSP... Yeah, that I could see getting a maaajor price cut at this point. The Go is still at the same price it was when the system launched, like, six years ago. How's that for unflinching prices?
MNK:
I'll bet you the first round of drinks at next year's E3: Nintendo will drop the price this year, most likely in September.
Sir Gordon Wheelmeier, gaming guru:
Snipers.
Actually, I agree with Sam about Nintendo not dropping its price until it has to. I think Microsoft is in a better pitch situation than Sony in this case – it can rely on saying that $300 will get you an Xbox and Kinect and supports multiplayer right out of the box. That's a big one for budget-conscious families looking for something that little Johnny, as well as the rest of the family, can enjoy. And even though it's actually much more limited in terms of what genres it can properly support, the Kinect will also seem more advanced to many casual buyers.
But, if people pick up on the Move well enough for it to be included as optional controls in most every shipping PS3 game (it's not a ton of extra work, in most cases), then the Move may have a much longer and more well-supported shelf life. The Move is clearly better for most things for the three of us, and the PS Eye itself picks up a lot of the other slack, but who knows what'll happen after marketing dollars start being spent.
Here's the wildcard, though – if COD ships with good Move support but no Kinect support, that may give Sony a massive early head-start.
MNK:
Y'know, that's something I've never thought of before – what if Sony pulls a Microsoft and gets exclusive Move compatibility with a major title like Call of Duty or Bungie's Next Big Thing? It's extremely plausible, given the company's bevy of E3 announcements. The exclusive collector's editions of Dead Space and Medal of Honor are, of themselves, enough to point in this direction – particularly given the Move remake of the Wii title.
Still... I can't shake the feeling that neither Kinect nor Move will move (heh) nearly as many units as the manufacturers want. It'll be enough to hold everyone over until 2012, sure, and the peripherals will probably be enough to significantly recast the very premises of the 720 and PS4, but an overwhelming sales success, at least here in America? Nah.
Sam:
Very, very few peripherals have been runaway successes – and the ones that have been this gen are on Nintendo systems. I would imagine both parties are looking at realistic benchmarks for success on things (as in hitting a million before the end of the holidays would be huge), but like Wheelmeier was saying, it’s going to come down to how much paper either of the companies is willing to throw at things. It seems very much like Microsoft is going to completely re-position their system to go up against the Wii and try to grab the more passive crowd. They’ll always have a funnel of third-party games that play right to the system’s core because no publisher these days is going to realistically look at the cost to make games and opt to go exclusive to one HD system, unless it’s a downloadable title.
For what it’s worth, I think Sony’s particular strategy, in the short term, is fantastic; they know who helped build up their numbers and they’re pushing Move toward them rather than trying to scoop up the Wii crowd explicitly – at least on the level that MS is. Of course, I love Sony’s strategy because it’s clearly trying to take the tech that made the Wii such a different experience and trying to improve on it by going, “Look, you can still play the games you like in a new way.” After seeing the kind of precision that it has, I’m eager to see how far that’ll go. For that matter, I’d love to see what is done with Kinect because, if properly embraced, it’ll be markedly different from what we’ve seen so far. In short, I think the next few years will be kind of a neat peek into what we’ll see happening next gen, and, at least this way, when we do see new hardware, a lot of the motion control stuff will have gotten past its growing pains. All three successors will benefit, and we all win!
Sir Gordon:
I agree with a lot of what's been said in terms of sales strategies and all that, but what's kind of alarming about this entire motion control fad is that it's just that: a fad. Families saw the Wii, realized they could all play Wii Sports bowling, remembered that the "Nintendo" was fun when the kids were growing up, and figured that it might be nice to have something new to do, as TV largely sucks these days.
Yes, the Wii is still selling, but at some point, and I'm willing to be it's sooner than later, anyone who has been interested in getting a console for casual gaming will have done so. No one who bought the Wii as their first system since the NES or thereabouts (like many parents) are going to buy a PS3 or Xbox 360 to get in on their motion control options. The Kinect and Move may do okay, but they're not going to create the next big input revolution, ala the analog stick.
I want it to be all about the graphics again...
