I have been playing my brand-new, eagerly purchased 3DS for the better part of the day. The system has, as expected, elicited a plethora of reactions that have run the entire gamut of gaming geekdom, from awed appreciation to tedious boredom to sheer excitement that the goddamn 3D really does work, after all, despite the bevy of hands-on previews hitherto offered by the journo world that have already confirmed (and re-confirmed) it.

And through it all, the most enjoyment I’ve managed to glean from my way-too-expensive little blue box has been the alternate reality games, tiny, little experiences that are barely-dressed-up pack-in tech demos. Take a picture of your wife’s face, have it morphed into a sphere, and shoot it as it flies around the room at you, in full 360 degrees. Slap a question block card on the table and watch as it morphs and distorts the piece of furniture into a shooting gallery. Cycle through the various poses of Mario, Link, and Captain Olimar’s Pikmin as they pop out of their own cards so that you might add their virtual likenesses to your three-dimensional photo album.

Cheesy? Sure. Laughable? Probably, although I’ve heard similar sentiments from plenty of others thus far. Gimmicky? Yes… and therein lies the crux of the matter. ARGs – at least, the 3DS’s photographic version – are most certainly a gimmick, along with Steel Diver’s periscope missions and a whole score of other applications seen in the launch library. Hell, the 3D itself, the very heart of Nintendo’s fourth-generation handheld, is nothing but a giant gimmick. But a quick survey of gaming’s finest moments yields surprising results: a goodly number of the most engaging, most enjoyable, and certainly the most unique experiences in videogames’ past come at the hands of some rather questionable methods. Clicking away on the myriad plastic peripherals that Guitar Hero has produced is some of the most fun I’ve had in gaming since I first played Super Mario Bros. in the arcade, with Star Fox 64’s force feedback or Pac-Man Versus’s interconnected GameCube-Game Boy Advance set-up not too far behind.

And then there’s the smaller stuff. Psycho Mantis bidding me to place my Dual Shock on the floor so that he might move it with the power of his mind strikes all three of the 3DS’s trifecta of lame chords – cheesy, laughable, and obviously gimmicky – but it’s also one of the single most clever beats I’ve ever encountered in a game. Playing as your Mii for the first time in Wii Sports never fails to bring a smile to one’s face, no matter how jaded he may be; rolling up everyday, household items in Katamari Damacy grows thin surprisingly quickly, but it never quite loses the hold that it (quite rightly) places on you. The versatility and the depth, the pervasiveness and resilience of the gimmick is nothing short of remarkable, really.

As it should be; for, at the end of the day, videogames are merely the latest extension – and, arguably, the fullest embodiment – of technology, and technology is nothing if not gimmicky. Text messages, GPSes, MP3 players, Blu-ray DVDs, karaoke machines… all are sizzle-in-the-pan deviations and recreations of a culture constantly attempting to titillate and capitalize. The gimmick is the special-edition, one-for-every state coin of the realm – which, just sometimes, can henceforth become the new, de facto standard, the one currency to rule them all forevermore (until, of course, the next new variation on the retired theme comes bouncing along). Sometimes, of course, it doesn’t. Ultimately, however, it doesn’t matter; the fun is in the experiencing, after all.

All of which means that the 3DS’s launch day, whether the ARGs’ novelty fades quickly away or their uniqueness makes them a permanent mainstay, is pure and simple fun.

Carpe diem.

It’s been one week since Sony officially unveiled the next-generation PlayStation Portable, an announcement marked, on the one hand, by familiarity – given that most of the new handheld’s capabilities had been leaked, in true Sony style, across the past several months – and, on the other, by surprise: the NGP? Why not the PSP2? And with all that high-falutin’ technology, just how much is this thing going to cost, anyway?

Such questions, of course, bring up even more queries, such as whether the first PSP was a success or a failure and just how in the world Sony plans on bringing down the DS platform – if they even consider it a threat. The TPS staff has had a full seven days to debate, prod, and eviscerate one another; this is their messy result.

And be sure to check out our expert panel’s take on the Next Generation Portable here.

Dan Hemsath
Features Freelancer
NGP. (I really hope that name doesn’t stick.)

I mean, whatever happened to creative names like “Saturn” or “Genesis”? Oh, yeah… they went out of the hardware-making business.

But back to the NGP: it’s not what I expected, primarily because it seems less “revolutionary” – when compared with the upcoming Nintendo 3DS, with regards to its “we did it first” touch screen and 3D capabilities. Instead, it seems like a more “advanced” gaming device than anything so far.

I spoke with a PlayStation representative yesterday who gave me the down-low about the NGP, and the first thing that I thought of was that it reminded me of a fusion between a PSP and a SixAxis controller. Apparently, the system will be motion sensitive, using SixAxis technology likely in the same ways the PS3 does. Now, all of those old commercials for videogames where the dudes on the couch are moving around with their controllers (or portables) somehow seem eerily more realistic.

When I asked about what all the “squares” and “triangles” on the back were, my representative told me that it was a “touch panel.” Moving your fingers on it would simulate different effects in games, such as pulling an object, sifting through sand, anything. (Interestingly, the front screen was also described as being a touch screen, as well. Hmm…)

There are several other features the NGP will have, she told me, but by this point, the dual analog and 3D had me dreaming about finally playing the ultimate game of Katamari Damacy, rolling up the world around me, using the touch panel for precision “princeliness.”

I think what will make the NGP stand out is what made the PS3 so sought after (Blu-ray aside): it is the culmination of every desirable feature portable gaming has to offer. Here’s hoping Sony markets this well to Western audiences, so that they understand what it is – and why it’s cool – before scanning price points first, and doing so later.

Kyle Heimbigner
News Editor
The “NGP” thing is just its codename.

Marc N. Kleinhenz
Features Editor
Yeah, but what are the chances that it’ll stick…?

Ryan Green
Reviews/Previews Editor
Well, did Project Natal stick? Project Dolphin?

Scott Rodgers
Sports Editor
Nintendo Revolution?

Nathan Tsui
Staff Writer
Katana?

Marc N. Kleinhenz
Features Editor
Of course the historical videogame landscape is filled with a litany of codenames, but, if memory serves right, this is the first time that Sony has done so. And the question then becomes, of course, why – especially when this is a continuation of a series of systems?

My only answer is a hunch: Sony is taking this thing very seriously, a guess which is only reinforced by the fact that it took its damn time in even announcing the new handheld. I think they’ve thought long and hard about what they want to do, about what they have to do, and about what will put them in the best position to not only try and get a leg up on Nintendo and its DS dynasty, but also on how to best position itself against the mobile phone manufacturers, as well.

And, in all honesty, my suspicion is that Sony is much more concerned about the latter than the former. There’s no conceivable way that a $300-plus ($350 seems like a number that Sony would delude itself into thinking is feasible) system can take on the 3DS, even if that portable is ridiculously (and stupidly) priced itself. The addition of the PlayStation Suite, for my money, drives this particular point home. If Sony can’t beat Nintendo head-on in the specific gaming sector of the much bigger mobile market, then go for the bigger market; there’s more money to (potentially) be made there, anyway.

My initial response to the NGP – and, granted, this is not after much contemplation upon the matter – is that it will fall flat while the PSS will thrive, to one degree or another.

Agree? Disagree?

Scott Rodgers
Sports Editor
You mean like how the Sony Gem never became the Move, right?

Marc N. Kleinhenz
Features Editor
Gem was never publicly announced by Sony, and it was only one of, literally, several codenames throughout its long lifespan (others include, apparently – because these were never publicly released – Sphere and Arc).

Which takes us back ’round to the question: why? Why give this an official codename? Was Sony’s hand forced before it felt ready? And why not, of course, just PSP2?

Sir Gordon Wheelmeier
Gaming Guru
I’m guessing NGP is a codename in as much as it’s the best thing that Sony could come up with at the moment, and they’re going to see how the reaction to the name is. I haven’t seen too many complaints, so maybe it’ll stick. Remember that Xbox was a codename, but it became so synonymous with the project that it stayed. The same could happen here. Or they’ll just call it the PS3 Portable.

Whatever. The bigger topic is that Marc is right – this thing is going to be so prohibitively expensive that it won’t sell. Period. Sony is going to pitch its price against the iPad and iPhone and similar tech, but that won’t fly. The iPad is, for many people, a notebook replacement, so that $500 is actually on the cheap end of what it’s replacing. And almost no one pays full price for an iPhone or Android device – they’re almost all subsidized at $200.

The other problem is that the mobile landscape moves so fast these days that the NGP’s tech will likely be met or, even, perhaps exceeded sometime in the next 18 months by Apple and Android partners. Keeping in mind that the NGP isn’t shipping for, let’s say, nine months, that closes the gap considerably. When the phone in your pocket, that you’ve already paid for, looks as good as a device that runs $300+ and only plays games, then it’s going to seem much less desirable.

Yes, the tech is undeniably awesome. But the price is really scary.

Marc N. Kleinhenz
Features Editor
Is this why, do you think, that Sony simultaneously unveiled the PS Suite – to leverage the gap between it and the rest of the mobile market as a back-door or otherwise back-up plan?

Parjanya Holtz
Senior Editor
The answer is simple: the name “PSP” reminds the general public of the disaster that was the PSP, which is why Sony is trying to shift the focus on the “next generation-ness” of the new device. It’ll be called PSP2 at some point, unless Sony starts thinking that NGP isn’t so bad, after all, but I honestly doubt that. The brand name “PlayStation” needs to be on a Sony Computer Entertainment product for it to be recognized by the most uninformed of consumers.

The other reason may be due to the rumors and leaks that were around for a while before the “NGP” was announced. It’s Sony trying to regain control over what gets out when. Coming up with a codename no one has heard before is quite the smart move in order to capitalize on that urgently needed attention that you get when you surprise people.

Ryan Green
Reviews/Previews Editor
While I agree with your point about “damage control” in regards to calling it the PSP2, I don’t understand why such a notion exists. Given that the PSP wasn’t as successful by any means when compared to the Nintendo DS, it still sold well for Sony and for a launch handheld. On top of that, it had a strong selection of exclusive titles, and much of that exclusivity remains today. I don’t expect to see Disgaea 2 on 3DS anytime soon, especially after how the first one sold (hint: I saw them flooded in bargain bins).

It will most likely be the PSP2, and a later revision will likely be the PSP2 go. Let’s not kid ourselves; this is the PlayStation Portable.

Personally, I won’t buy it until it has a few revisions. That system size is way bigger than my PSP go, and I’m really unsure of how long that battery life is. Like Gordon said, that price point is key. If you remember what Sony actually mentioned so far about the NGP, you’ll notice all of the crazy hardware and some of the franchises that will appear early on. What you didn’t see – which, to me, is even more important than the price – is the battery life. Sony doesn’t get battery life. Nintendo has sacrificed a lot in the name of it, and, to this day, I haven’t needed to charge my Game Boy Advance SP more than 10 times. In the mobile market, three hours of usage is downright pathetic. While the only time I needed more than that with a portable is during a cross-country flight, it needs to be better.

It feels like Sony is going to tech-bomb this platform in the hopes that it will still be valid in a few years, so the investment to the consumers won’t be that difficult to handle. But a unit that bulky, however expensive, and lacking in battery life isn’t going to cut it.

So, in part, that is where the Suite program comes into play. Sony acknowledges the growing mobile gaming market, one that was given new life, in no small part, because of Apple. Having developers jump on board with this new platform and revenue stream will help ensure a longer life for Sony devices and a newfound appreciation for their products. At the same time, it is a necessary means of dealing with those pirates (sorry, homebrewers) who think it is their inalienable right to hack the hardware they are basically licensing from Sony so they can license media to play on it. Now, if you want to develop for portable Sony devices, you have a new means of doing so, in a legally acceptable way.

Ultimately, this is all moot. We are getting more trophies, so everyone should pre-order ASAP! Let’s go, Paji!

Kyle Heimbigner
News Editor
The PSP wasn’t a disaster – it sold over 50 million units worldwide. That’s pretty successful.

Aram Lecis
Managing Editor
Kyle said what I wanted to say – I think it is perceived as a disaster. And as far as software sales go, it is a disaster, since piracy is so rampant. But hardware sales-wise, it was pretty damn successful, for sure.

Perception is important, though, one has to admit.

Sir Gordon Wheelmeier
Gaming Guru
Hardware sales aside, if the games didn’t sell (and they didn’t), then third-party publishers will be less likely to back the NGP with quality titles, and that’s a huge problem.

Remember that this thing will not be cheap to develop for. Outside of ports, it’s going to take a lot of manpower (read: cash loots) in order to develop quality titles for it. If publishers aren’t committed, those games aren’t going to come.

Ryan Green
Reviews/Previews Editor
Gordon is right. My joint venture with Sam, Greeshop Entertainment and Cleaning Service, dropped $20,000.00 to develop for the Mini Status, and we took several cycles to recoup that cost. And we didn’t factor in piracy at all, as it doesn’t exist in Game Dev Story.

It truly is the perfect gaming world. Too perfect.

I don’t think that piracy can be the primary source of blame here. Homebrew and old Nintendo ROMs ruled the roost. Piracy hurt, but, in the end, I put my money on people playing their favorite childhood games portably.

Again, this is where I think the Suite comes into play, as well as the 3G and trophy support. All of these are more diversions for people to not hack it and abuse the system. Give people more reasons to not hack your system, and the amount of piracy should drop. At least, that is what Sony is hoping for.

Aram Lecis
Managing Editor
Oh, I agree one hundred percent, Sir Gordon. But if the boys at Sony are telling the truth that it is a “one week” process to port a PS3 game to the NGP, that could be a huge boost. Or it could make gamers just go “meh.” But I think if Uncharted 3, Twisted Metal, and other AAA titles were released day-and-date on NGP and PS3, not to mention if they port past hits like LBP2, then people will have to take notice.

However, if the damn thing costs as much as my 3DO did on launch, then the whole system is DOA.

Marc N. Kleinhenz
Features Editor
For me, the most telling question is: has Sony learned from its past mistakes? Which leads to a bigger, much more systemic inquiry: can Sony learn from its missteps?

The PSP and PS3 both were literally crippled because of an unrestrained ego that said, “We can release whatever we want whenever we want at whatever cost we want, because we’re Sony – people will gladly pay for it and instantly beg for more.” And, obviously, this just wasn’t the case; finances (and software lineups, something which neither system had until well into their respective lifespans) trump brand loyalty, it turns out. That we went into the Great Recession almost immediately after the PS3’s release was just icing on a very bitter cake.

The simple truth is that we simply don’t know how Sony will respond to failure or other assorted forms of rejection, because the company didn’t start making mistakes of the egotistical kind until the PS2 days; almost literally every single thing the company did with the PSX was spot-on perfect in a way that was humbling to have witnessed and is depressing in its aftermath. Call it the Golden Age of Sony. What the latter half of the PS3’s lifecycle and the launch of the NGP will be called is very much up in the air. To whit:

If the answer to both questions is a resounding yes, then the NGP has, I think, a very good chance of not only imitating the PSP’s isolated, comparative success, but also expanding and expounding upon it, probably to a great degree. (There’s still no way in hell that it’ll best the 3DS, however, no matter what Sony throws at it.) But if the answer is no… then it’s going to be very, very interesting to see what form the PS4 will take next year.

Aram Lecis
Managing Editor
I was going to reply, but then when you said “to whit” instead of “to wit,” the whole thing lost all credence to me.

Sam Bishop
Editor-in-chief
Wait, what, Marc? Can they learn from their past mistakes? Uh, of course – what do you think the majority of this generation has been for Sony? It’s been a constant listening-and-response act from the company, adding nearly every single asked-for feature on the system save for cross-game voice chat and .mkv support.

It’s good to be critical where warranted, but the PSP launched at the exact same price as the 3DS did. Every Sony system, even ones from that Golden Age, takes about two years to really build up a head of steam on the software side, and I’ve little doubt it’ll be different for the PSP2.

If we’re going to sit here and reflect on the success (or supposed lack thereof) of the original PSP, we must take into account the situation on a global scale. Right now, in Japan, over five years after launch, the most successful game release so far this year was a PSP game that sold over three million copies when it hit, and has now sold over four million. There are hardware shortages of the PSP in Japan right now.
The situation might be bleak here for the system, but over there, it’s literally the best-selling hardware week after week – better than the Wii (which, incidentally, is also being outsold by the PS3), and better than even the DS. The PSP is not a failure; it was just never a good fit for Western audiences.

Here’s the thing, though: the PSP2 will be, and it’s because of just one little difference – the second analog stick. Mark my words, the PSP2/NGP/whatever-you-want-to-call-it will be a success – one that even the naysayers can’t try to paint as anything else.

Marc N. Kleinhenz
Features Editor
This is just for Aram.

=)

Aram Lecis
Managing Editor
I thought for sure that link was going to tell me that I was the one who had it wrong, and I was scared to click on it… thank God I didn’t have to deal with that sort of thing – it shatters my giant ego!

Predictions! Get your predictions here! What will the distant and scary year of 2011 bring – Wii HD? PSP2? Announcements for the Xbox 720? And just what the hell is that damn PSPhone that everyone keeps flapping their damn gums about?

We know. Oh, yes, we know… and that is half the battle.

The other half is a good start.

Oh, yes, it is…

Parjanya Holtz
Senior Editor
Everyone who has been working with and/or for TPS at some point in his or her “career” knows that Marc N. Kleinhenz not only is a hopeless Nintendo fanboy (who sprawls within the realms of a bewildering love/hate relationship with Sony), but he’s also a witch and, henceforth, proud owner of a mysterious crystal ball. To put this into some context, MNK has both successfully predicted that by 2012 California won’t be smart (safe) to live in (which, understandably, is part of the reason why he abhors the idea of living in the Sunshine State so much) and spoiled the next Twilight movie for half the staff. (Except for Aram and Andy, who both had already read the book.)

So, why are we gathering here for yet another group discussion? The answer is simple: Marc likes to see us make fools of ourselves. While he knows what’s going to happen, we speculate wildly on what the new year will have in store for our beloved videogames.

With Sony celebrating the PS3’s fifth – and Microsoft, the 360’s sixth – birthday in 2011, one would think that this hardware generation is about to begin losing its momentum. However, one quick glance at the PS3’s (scheduled) lineup for next year should make every Sony fanboy dance his own name. So what do I predict besides Sony delivering the system’s strongest list of games to date? How about the PSP2 and the PSPhone? Both make absolute sense looking at the most recent developments on the market(s) (the PSPhone will go up against the iPhone, and the PSP2 against the 3DS), plus all the rumors and “leaked” images of both systems popping up on every blog these days pretty much confirm that it won’t be long until we will hear of both. E3 2011. Any doubts?

My other “major” prediction is the surprise unveiling and release of a new independent property that will be exclusive to the PS3. All of Sony’s new IPs have become major successes, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they felt comfortable enough to give a studio like Ready at Dawn a shot at creating an entirely new franchise that’s once again exclusive to the PS3. Actually, thinking about the talk I had with Dana Jan [the God of War: Ghost of Sparta game director], I am pretty convinced that it’ll be them becoming Sony’s next big second-party PS3 developer.

I also predict the unveiling of a Wii HD, which will likely be less of a successor and more of a fully backward compatible “pro” version of the current generation Wii — actually quite similar to Sony’s and Microsoft’s redesigns, but with a few more system-enhancing hardware upgrades. The Wii 2 will probably not be unveiled before E3 2012, alongside the PS4 and Xbox 3.

What do you guys think?

Marc N. Kleinhenz
Features Editor
There will be no Wii HD. Nintendo is following a traditional, old-school philosophy with their systems – just one per generation, thank you very much – and they’ll jump right to the Wii Too (yes, I really do think it’ll be called that). It’s more than likely that Nintendo will “announce” it at next year’s E3, just as they tipped their hand in regards to the Revolution and its Virtual Console at E3 2005, with a full blowout at and release for ‘12. Whether or not the Xbox 720 ships the same year is unknown, although extremely likely.

Another prediction: all three next-gen systems will launch with cameras to complement their packed-in motion controls (and, possibly, their pack-in traditional controls).

One last one: at least a quarter of the 2011 PS3 exclusives, such as The Last Guardian and, just possibly, SOCOM 4, will get delayed until ‘12.

Kyle Heimbigner
Staff Writer
I see The Last Guardian actually finally coming out in 2011. I think we’ll see a lot of it at E3, and then it’ll have a Christmas release. But, yeah, ‘11 is looking to be what ‘10 should have been for Sony. The first half of this year was strong, but Sony’s Christmas has been very disappointing – unless you wanted the PlayStation Move, and even then you are still waiting until 2011 for the good motion games. LittleBigPlanet 2 will be the game everyone talks about next year, too, I think, along with Killzone 3. Most likely, though, LBP2 will get all of the attention – until Uncharted 3 comes out. There is really nothing from Microsoft next year that really makes the 360 stand out like Sony’s lineup of games does.

Aram Lecis
Señor Editor
My first prediction is that there is no way it will be called “Wii Too.” That’s way too clever for Nintendo. It will actually be called SDNES, for Super Duper Nintendo Excrement System.

While I do not think we will even see a reveal of a new console in 2011 (maybe from Microsoft, but even that I sorta doubt), I think Paji is right on with the PSP2 for sure. Maybe there will finally be the PSPhone, but even if such a thing does come to pass, I see it going the way of the Microsoft Kin, and I’d be amazed if it did as well as an N-Gage. Sorry – iPhone has that platform on lockdown, and Droid picks up the slack for those nonconformists that now hate Apple as some big, faceless conglomeration that must be stopped (oh, how the tides have turned).

Game-wise, things look a little grim for 2011 right now. Yes, there is a spate of sequels to highly regarded games, but there is a dearth of new IP, and that makes me a sad gamer. I’m not denying that there can be excellent sequels, but you are still just playing a refinement of an existing game, and as I am an aging product of a society that celebrates short attention spans, it is very hard for a sequel to keep me gripped or get me excited. Still, there are always a few surprises that come out of nowhere to be really good games (like Darksiders in 2010), so I’m betting there is something out there. I am excited about Twisted Metal, which clever readers will point out is another sequel… but when you haven’t put out a full console game in almost 10 years, then a sequel is okay.

My only other thought is that we will probably see a decline in the 3D push by late in 2011 (and perhaps motion controls, too), barring someone coming up with an actual “killer app” that makes 3D (and motion) anything more than a gimmick that adds nothing to the gameplay. I’m probably wrong, but I should be right.

Sam Bishop
Editor-in-chief
Oho, I want to get in on this!

I’ll steer clear of new hardware predictions (though the PSP2 is real and the PSPhone is a PlayStation device only in our clever little naming convention-making minds and is an Android device first with the option to play select downloaded PlayStation titles), but I’ll insist this will be the last full-blown year where everyone’s still fully committed to their home hardware (okay, maybe just MS and Sony). We’ll likely see the best-looking, most refined, and most expanded game concepts of the generation in 2011, with 2012 serving as sort of the swan song for our lovable black brick. There’ll be a price drop to $200 to get hardware sales moving at a pace deserving of easily the most impressive year in terms of sheer software output.

3D has definitely become something of a pratfall for Sony. While I love that games are leading the content charge (seriously, I think there’s, like, 20 times more 3D games than there are TV programming and Blu-rays combined), it’s clear that the tech cannot be bolted onto an existing engine and just left at that. Games need to be made for 3D first, and ideally with Move thrown in there, too, to properly show off an interface that uses all the space in front of the player in more than just waggle ways. I think we may see some interesting experiments in both tech, but until they’re standard in the PS4 and every HDTV out there is also a 3DTV (which will absolutely happen in the next few years), it’s a tough sell for all the performance hit and extra dev time it would take to make a “real” 3D game. I fully expect someone like Kojima to really do it all justice in the next few years, and I can’t wait.

I’d say most of the stuff hitting with definite dates already (like Uncharted 3) will stick to their dates. The Last Guardian is very likely an early 2012 game. I just don’t see it making it this year, but E3 is going to be insane. There’s still a lot of stuff that’s unannounced so far (like Lightbox’s Warhawk follow-up), and there will definitely be a full hardware reveal of the PSP2, so I’m pumped. I don’t mind all the sequels right now; this is the point in every hardware cycle where devs leverage the experience and continued refinements to their engines to make the games rather than the tech, and I think we may see plenty of games with the numeral three after them hitting, but they’ll be hands-down the best of their franchises.

When we start to head into new hardware next year (and that’s 2012, at the earliest), that’s the time for devs to start creating new IPs, and Sony has shown that its first-party studios don’t mind making huge leaps into something new. For now, I’m happy to just enjoy the continued price breaks and advances to familiar gameplay and franchises that the end of a hardware cycle entails.

Aram Lecis
Señor Editor
I WANT MY NEW GAMES YOU SHUT UP!

Sam Bishop
Editor-in-chief
I WANT THEM TOO BUT I ALSO WANT STARHAWK AND G-POLICE AND COLONY WARS AND OH GOD I CAN’T STOP TYPING IN CAPS SOMEONE HEEEEEEELP ME!

(Also, yeah, the PSN has sort of emerged as its own half-platform, and that definitely seems to be the most fruitful germination point for new ideas – and that’s not a bad way to do it, really. Less risk, possibly better rewards.)

Marc N. Kleinhenz
Features Editor
I actually think we’ll see a $199 PS3 (and, of course, Xbox 360) at the end of next year, as opposed to ‘12, but – hey – I was wrong about a price drop for the Wii this year, so who knows.

If we don’t see cheaper systems this coming year… then when will the manufacturers introduce the 512-bit systems? Unless, of course, they all take the PS2 route, with the first several years of the new generation being slightly eaten by a more-productive-for-longer older gen?

Sam Bishop
Editor-in-chief
I’d honestly be surprised if we didn’t see E3 announcements of $200 and permanent bundles for the rest of the gen. Any extensions to current prices could be an attempt to offset R&D costs, but, most of the time, that’s all sunk in the hopes of getting it all back over the course of that gen.

Basically, it’s my guess that if prices hold past the middle of this year, tuck in for at least another full year of the current hardware. And, honestly, as much of a spaz as I am about new hardware reveals, I’m okay with a few more years. Let ‘em work out those motion control kinks to see what works and what doesn’t before we end up just grouping them into the next gen by default.

Daniel Hemsath
Features Freelancer
2011 and the future of gaming… let me peer into my crystal ball… I see… goldfish. Oh, wait… this is a fishbowl.

Seriously, though, I’m sure Nintendo will release an HD system, and I’m inclined to agree that it will be backwards-compatible with Wii games (GameCube, who knows) and feature a camera. It seems a little less “revolutionary” than the Wii was, in light of recent motion-gaming advances, but I suspect that Nintendo will embrace the audience introduced to gaming with the Wii, and still surprise us with a trick up their sleeves. The 3DS is already confirmed for 2011, but I think it’s going to be less successful than the DS was – until the inevitable price drop. It seems like too many “non-gamers” see the DS as a toy, not an interactive media device, like an iPhone. Parents won’t shell out $300 (or even $250) for a device that might make their six-year-old throw up; apparently, they might weigh the consequences if it were cheaper, I guess.

Back when the PS3 dropped in price to $300, I was dumbfounded. I couldn’t figure out how they could afford to do it. I heard they were losing money on every system made. So a drop to $200 sounds crazy – but videogames are a dynamic market. Technological advances come up with memory, production, etc. so fast that I doubt Sony really is losing money on the production of their consoles at this time. So, maybe, it’s not so implausible. For anyone who’s been holding out, $200 is the magic price. Heck, $300’s still a steal.

PlayStation Phone – knowing Sony, it’s guaranteed to release next year. Early reports suggest that it will be modeled after (or crafted from the bodies of) the PSP go, which isn’t surprising. After all, Sony has a way of reusing its technology until it catches on; take UMDs and their progenitor, the MiniDisc. But as for the PlayStation Phone’s audience? With iPhones, Droids, and even the Windows Phone 7, the market’s not just saturated, it’s underwater. Can the PSPhone remain competitive – or even dominant – in its arena?

And as far as the PSP2 goes, I’m sure we’ll see it in 2011, albeit as a holiday release. (Wouldn’t that be something?) I’m interested in seeing what really sets it apart from its competitor, aside from being very pretty, I’m sure. I’m honestly hoping it will push for a sophisticated DLC-oriented library, a la “apps,” or other Media Go-styled content; I believe that this is the future of portable gaming, not cartridges the size of postage stamps you’ll lose in-between the cushions of your couch.

And Microsoft? Sure, there’s Gears 3 and Forza 4 (which I’m sure will be Kinect-enabled and big sellers), but what else is there? Is Microsoft really that confident in Kinect that they feel they can coast on it? I can’t even see any significant Kinect games coming out next year that make this accessory a “must have” for 2011; even Child of Eden (which looks slick) is a bit niche. And while I don’t believe that we’ll hear of an Xbox 3 (or 720, depending on preference) or PS4 next year, I’m sure holiday 2011 will determine Microsoft’s future role in gaming – for better or worse – depending on which audience they embrace and which audience they take for granted.

Sam Bishop
Editor-in-chief
Just to chime in one last time on some of this, the PS3 was still losing just a few bucks per unit sold when the Slim dropped at $300, but this was quickly corrected and Sony has been making a profit on the system more or less since it launched. If they do drop to $200, it’ll likely be because they were able to move to a new fab size and maybe squeeze more into less space. Then again, at this point, they really can’t afford to slip any more. The PS2 is dead. The PSP is dead in the States, and the PS3 is chilling in a distant third here, too. I think any future pricing moves will be reactive rather than proactive, but I do still think we’ll see a $200 system. The software isn’t just there, it’s everywhere, so really the only thing holding back consumers seems to be the relative price difference versus the other systems. As long as that barrier is there, no talk of bundled Move controllers or Blu-ray playback is going to knock it down in consumers’ eyes. Two hundo certainly would.

And again, on the PSPhone (sorry I brought it up again), remember that it’s a Sony Ericsson device, not a Sony Computer Entertainment one. It has PlayStation functionality in limited download form, but it’s not a PSP and likely won’t carry the PlayStation name. Sony needs to keep that as pure as possible leading up to the reveal of the PSP2 around E3. The phone may do well (the Xperia devices have been doing okay, I believe), but it shouldn’t be judged by the same metric as normal PlayStation hardware. It won’t get that push, it won’t get that reveal, and (hopefully, in Sony’s mind, I’m sure) it won’t pull focus from the real PSP successor that’s waiting in the wings.

Parjanya Holtz
Senior Editor
Yeah, I think Sam pretty much has it figured out regarding the PSPhone. They want the PlayStation name out there tied to their Ericssons so those will do better, not the other way around. It’s more a marketing coup than a real noteworthy PlayStation release. (Remember, the old Sony Ericsson phones all used to have the PlayStation controller logo already in there, so the interconnection is not entirely new.) However, if they do it right, Sony Computer Entertainment could actually really profit from this. Minis need a push, and in the end it might actually help sell PSP(2)s.

I still stand by my prediction for 2012 being the big year for new console announcements/releases, not 2011, and I still think the Wii HD might actually happen. Nintendo probably sees the PS2 (and especially its later years) as an indicator of how the casual market can help make a console a tremendous success, which is why they’d be stupid not to keep the Wii around for a few more years (alongside the Wii 2). A redesigned HD version might be the way to go, unless they’re afraid it would take away momentum from the Wii 2. Or is their market dominance too frail to pull off such a Sony-ish move? Either way, all three major corporations have a lot of thinking to do regarding the future of their brands. As Sony painfully had to learn, a good start is half the race.

What’s in a release date?

Apparently, at the beginning of the modern era of gaming, not much. Console manufacturers, not yet lured by the siren that is the fourth quarter of the year or dominated by the rigors and subtleties of “launch windows,” had an extremely flexible and wide-ranging spectrum of dates. Nintendo released its very first system in October (but only in New York; the rest of the country had to wait throughout the entirety of the following year) and chose July to ship the first iteration of the first Game Boy, while Sega used June as the birth month for its Master System. August, interestingly enough, emerged as the first momentous month for the industry, gaming’s original (and short-lived) November: the Genesis, TurboGrafx-16, and Super NES all hit store shelves within its 31 days. And even the first half of the year saw some action, with the Saturn (sort of) debuting in May.

The tradition of reserving Q4 as the exclusive grounds for system launches didn’t nominally start until Sony entered the arena, ten long and dynamic years later. (Technically, 3DO and Atari beat the Japanese electronics giant to the punch, releasing the 3DO in October and the Jaguar in November of 1993, but their consoles are mere footnotes – literally – in the annals of gaming history.) After the PSX, PS2, and PS3 were shipped in September, October, and November, respectively, manufacturers clung to the merry month of November like vultures to a snowbound carcass: the Xbox saw release on the 15th; the PS3, the 17th; the GameCube and the Game Boy Color, the 18th; the Wii, the 19th; the DS, the 21st; and the Xbox 360, the 22nd. Hell, even non-hardware – or, at least, non-system – launches have favored the eleventh month of the year, with Microsoft in particular leading the charge; it started Xbox Live (on the 15th), debuted Xbox Live Arcade (the 3rd), introduced the New Xbox Experience (the 19th), and, most recently, unleashed Kinect (the 19th once more) all in November.

MARCH
PSP – 03.24.05

JUNE
GBA – 06.11.01

JULY
Game Boy – 07.31.89

AUGUST
Genesis – 08.14.89
Super NES – 08.23.91

SEPTEMBER
PlayStation – 09.09.95
Nintendo 64 – 09.29.96
Dreamcast – 09.09.99

OCTOBER
NES – 10.18.85
PlayStation 2 – 10.26.00

NOVEMBER
Xbox – 11.15.01
PlayStation 3 – 11.17.06
GameCube – 11.18.01
Wii – 11.19.06
DS – 11.21.04
Xbox 360 – 11.22.05

The sole exception to this ad hoc tradition, interestingly enough, comes in the form of handheld systems. Although Nintendo shipped the GBC and DS in the fourth quarter, the Game Boy Advance was in June, while the PSP was, bizarrely, in March. And lest a first-quarter release be seen as being too unusual (or, apparently, unique), the big N has already indicated that the 3DS, its fourth portable, will similarly hit shelves in March of next year.

This latter and latest development may have something to do with the still-burgeoning trend of software publishers treating Q1 as the new Q4, or it may simply be a by-product of end-of-fiscal-year book balancing – or, most mundane yet, the manifestation of assembly-line realities – but it nevertheless sends the same signal: as the videogame industry continues to grow and solidify its presence as a major, not to mention permanent, fixture in the entertainment panorama, it needs to rely less and less on the seasonal, toy-purchasing surge of November, generating instead its own momentums at any arbitrary point in the calendar year.

As the market finishes growing up, in other words, it’s heading back to its adolescent stomping grounds.

The backstory:

The Sony PlayStation has turned 15, and a grand celebration of remembrances past has been had by all. But while the questions of legacies and seminal experiences have been weighed and expounded upon, there is still much to be covered and debated – particularly in regards to the (controversial) history-in-the-making that is the PSP and the PS3.

The players:

James Holdsworth
EverythingPlayStation.com

Peter Chapman
TheSixthAxis.com

Chris Kuspis
PSNStores.com

Allen Tyson
PlayStationLifeStyle.net

Marc N. Kleinhenz, TotalPlayStation features editor:

What was your first exposure to the system? How and why did you pick it up?

James Holdsworth, EverythingPlayStation curator/manager:

For me, I received the PSX as a Christmas gift. This new, revolutionary turning point in gaming had arrived and I was hyped to get my hands on it and simply play! At the time, I was rather partial to and owned most driving games. One of my favourites of the genre was World’s Scariest Police Chases. I was stunned by the graphics and visuals that the PSX had published and also just the basis of the game; it was fun and unique, attempting a sub-genre of games that had never really been delved into before. There was no other console of the likes around the PlayStation’s era; this is why it appealed to the masses, and this is why it grew outstandingly well in gamers’ homes.

Peter Chapman, TheSixthAxis site editor:

I think that, for me, it was a natural progression following my years with the Mega Drive (Genesis in the States) and friends’ Super NESes. I remember that I had really wanted the Sega Saturn, but it released in the summer, too early for my birthday or Christmas, so I couldn’t get it. I can’t remember why I changed my mind and decided against the Saturn, but I remember feeling like a traitor for switching brands from Sega, who I had been a big advocate for in those 16-bit console wars!

I had a crappy weekend job in a restaurant, and I saved my share of the tips to buy my first PSX around Christmas ‘95. Mostly, it was used socially to play fighting, racing, and football games with friends, but it wasn’t long before I got familiar with the rental section at the video store and expanded my PlayStation horizons.

Chris Kuspis, PSNStores editor-in-chief:

My friends got the PlayStation before my family did; since we had gotten an N64 recently, my parents didn’t see the reason to buy another one at the time. So I would go over to my friend Jordan’s house and play that X-Games game. We loved to tear it up down the streets of San Francisco on the luges. Eventually, my younger brother ended up getting a bundle for his birthday one year – I think it was the one with a Crash Bandicoot bundled with it, and some DualShock controllers. I was really amazed that you didn’t need to put a huge Rumble Pak in the controller for it to rumble! I was hooked to the PlayStation brand since then.

Allen Tyson, PlayStationLifeStyle contributor:

My first exposure to the system was actually from EGM. I remember picking up an issue a month or two before launch and feasting my eyes on what would be taking over my time for the next month: Ridge Racer. Ironically, I wasn’t that big of a racing fan, but seeing those smooth graphics, images of cars drifting, and knowing that an arcade type of experience could be in my living room had my attention. I kept staring at those images, re-reading the article, and thinking, “No way the game can look that good.” I jumped online, looked at images, and watched a video of it in action and it captivated me – a complete and total non-racing guy. I headed to Software, Etc. (now defunct) and found a demo kiosk with Ridge Racer running, and I was hooked. It was unlike anything I had ever seen. I was working nights then, so I had the store to myself. I felt like I had blinked, looked at my watch, and an hour had gone by. I pulled out my debit card and did a pre-order on the spot.

It was at that point that I did my first bit of social engineering without even really know it. As the launch date approached, I started to get a little bit nervous about games and peripherals selling out. I went to back to the Software, Etc. where I had pre-ordered my console two days before launch. I was told that, if I wanted to, I could buy Ridge Racer and an extra controller, so I went ahead and did it to easy my paranoia. I had to stop by Target and buy something, and here is where the social engineering came in (not quite as cool as getting free pizza for life Kevin Rose-style, but close). I walked back to the electronics area and saw in the locked display case the unthinkable: two PSX units just sitting there!

I casually asked the young lady behind the counter, “Hey what’s that?”

“Some guy thing, but nobody has gotten it,” she replied. I, trying to be as cool as a 00 agent, said, “It looks cool – I’ll get one.” She grabbed a manager – at this point I thought the plan was foiled – and he quickly came over, seeming extremely busy, opened it up, and walked away. I purchased it as quick as possible, asked her for a giant bag so I could cover up the box, and then ran for the door like Ethan Hunt leaving Langley. I cancelled my pre-order that afternoon. I spent the next 16 hours between food, breaks, and the occasional nap playing. After thinking it can’t get any better than this, I received a call from Software, Etc. reminding me they had put Battle Arena Toshinden on hold just in case. I snatched that one up, and there went another 12 hours.

I remember being totally exhausted but having this sense that I was a part of something special – like my sister told me about when Pong came out. Who knew 15 years later I would be reminiscing about it…?

Marc N. Kleinhenz, TotalPlayStation features editor:

It seems to me that Sony made fewer mistakes, ironically enough, with its first system than with either of its successors; it’s as if the accumulation of success as a videogame developer and the condensation of multimedia functionality as a content producer ballooned the company’s ego to the point that it thought (a) it could topple Nintendo in the handheld market with a hideously expensive portable and (b) that it could release a hideously expensive console and not lose any business in the transition. There is a purity with the PlayStation that, (once again) to me, is missing from the PS2, PSP, and PS3.

Thoughts? Comments? Death threats?

Peter Chapman, TheSixthAxis site editor:

I think that the first iteration of the PlayStation brand was more focused purely because they were simpler times. There was no networking to deal with because we barely had the World Wide Web in 1995. That meant no online system, no media streaming, no mass storage required. The inclusion of a memory card system was considered quite the advancement, never mind the hard disks, USB sticks, and cloud storage that we all take for granted now.

With the original PlayStation, Sony made a box which read data from CD-ROMs, already a common media, and put that data on your TV via RCA or SCART leads. You plugged a (completely digital) controller into the front. Remember when the shoulder buttons were just buttons? Now they’re triggers and they’re analogue, along with most other buttons on a DualShock 3. It was easier to get it right and to make it cheaper.

That being said, I do think a certain degree of complacency set in for Sony. The massive success of the PlayStation 2, topping the achievements of its predecessor, seems to have made them think they were more resilient to competition than they turned out to be. The PSP, in particular, has been a disaster on many levels. In spite of being a great little system, it was almost killed by piracy and the constant firmware arms race to keep it secure. That killed off a lot of publisher interest, and the system suffers from a limited catalogue. Then the overly expensive PSP go locked in overly expensive digital downloads and limited the software selection even further. I think that’s the next big battleground for Sony: the portable. They need to get the PSP2 just right or they will be forced out of the handheld market altogether.

Allen Tyson, PlayStationLifeStyle contributor:

I think this is an interesting question. I see this from two different views that ultimately end up at the same place…

When I think of the PSX launch – the marketing, the games that Sony displayed – I think there was a much clearer message about that direction the console was going to take. There was a singular focus about their entry into the console market, the tech involved, and its ability to double as a CD player, which was a huge bonus. Potential buyers were captivated by (in my opinion) all those things I just mentioned, this crazy-looking-yet-accessible logo, and the – perhaps if only in the back of their minds – security they were getting from purchasing from a brand known the world over. Sony was in the game space, but they were in so many other spaces, and the message was strong; the thought was, “Let’s give it a try,” despite the price… and it was a huge success.

Sony entered the PS2 market as the dominant force in consoles, and they were, at the time, driving the direction of where the console future was headed. When the PS2 came out, things changed a little bit. I think the message wasn’t quite as clear, but clear enough to be understood by the general public, who knew what the PSX had done. The thought of a combo device that played DVDs, that played CDs, and that would deliver graphics far and away beyond the PSX was captivating. Throw in backwards compatibility and network support, and you had surefire winner, right? True, the PS2 was extremely expensive for a console, but the branding was so strong, and they had produced results in the past which resulted in yet another success. Things changed with the PS3.

Being a year behind the Xbox 360 hurt Sony tremendously. Microsoft started doing things in a social space that Sony hadn’t really done previously. They launched a true next-gen console and, in their own way, told the market, “Walk this way.” Some might say it was arrogance on Sony’s part because of past success, or others might say that it was a market leader simply trying to move the industry the way they had always done; the result was that the PS3 was put in the catch-up position from the moment it launched. I go back to message again here: the PS3’s message was hard to grasp initially for a lot of gamers and non-gamers. The price point was extremely high for a console, there was this push about the Cell processor and technology that nobody really understood, there was talk of Blu-ray being the future, digital downloads, all these things, to a core gamer, that weren’t the reason why you bought a console – you bought it for the games, and there was less talk of that and more about the hardware. In retrospect, would we be where we are now, without those hard choices? No. Would Blu-ray be the dominant format? No. Paramount and Warners did have a lot to do with that last one, but without the potential market of film purchases increasing with the PS3, who knows what would have happened – it was a real dog-fight going back to VHS versus Beta, or DVD versus DIVX, take your pic. Would games like Uncharted, Uncharted 2, and Killzone 3 be possible with that investment in the Cell? Perhaps, but not in the same way we have them today. Making all those tough decisions early now gives Sony credibility when they say they have a 10-year lifecycle. But it was a long, hard road to get here, and you can’t argue that some gamers went the 360 route. I think right now, Sony makes the strongest value proposition, in most respects, as the console to purchase. A lot of those early 360 owners, facing the decision to upgrade their 360 or go Sony, might just be going Sony…

The PSP is, I think, a completely different conversation, and one that is tough to quantify. You have a powerful gaming system, capable of producing the best graphics in the handheld market at the time of its release. Integration with the PS3 via things like remote play was slow in coming, but it arrived and performed well. The PSP has a great lineup of titles, some of which will go down in history as being the best games of our generation. It’s still profitable, still selling units, and developers like Square Enix are putting triple-A titles on it. The price was more expensive than the competition, but at the same time, you were getting a lot more right out of the gate; it was billed as the Walkman of the next generation. I don’t think it was arrogance on Sony’s part, but it’s hard to supplant Nintendo in a market they have truly locked down. They really, for lack of a better term, “get” the handheld market because they have been in it for so long. Being a pop-culture guy, things just pop in my head; when I was writing this, I couldn’t help thinking of what Apollo Creed said to Rocky Balboa in Rocky III when he’s training him for the rematch with Clubber Lang. Apollo says: “You wanna lay up in the hospital for five weeks this time? You thought I was tough – this chump will kill you.”

I am being dramatic, I know, but the fight Sony took in the console market was nothing like what they were in for on the handheld side, and I don’t know if they realized just what it would take to dominate that market. An argument could be made that it wasn’t their intent to dominate it – it was to simply compete and take a market share away from Nintendo. And that they did. In that sense, it’s a successful venture. The PSP just hit at a really difficult time, tech-wise. Had it launched a year early, that might have helped solidify it more as the Walkman of the new generation. Cellular technology, mobile devices, all these things were starting to integrate more and more functionality. Devices like the iPhone and the Droid started to position themselves as the all-in-one device to have, even adding bite-sized gaming like PSP Minis. Since Nintendo never really marketed themselves as anything more than primarily a game device, it put them in direct competition, but not quite as direct as Sony. I view the market sometimes as a tornado; just when you think you have an idea where it’s going, it can suddenly shift, and you’re left scratching your head. Sony attempted to drive the market in a certain direction, as it had done in the past (I think), and the tech market just shifted on them faster than they could react to it.

Going forward, the cell-phone/gaming/handheld market is converging in a big way, and I know Sony has a plan; I just don’t know it is. They have done some extremely innovative things, and they seem to have a better handle on the handheld market now than when they first entered it. I don’t think it’s going to be possible to dethrone Nintendo, but number two isn’t a bad place to be…

There was this long period of time without a next-gen Sony console, but that was okay, because it was said again and again on forums, “Just wait ‘til that PS3 hits.” When it arrived, people were expecting Sony to outdo themselves, which didn’t happen right away – for example, the price point was higher than any other console.

James Holdsworth, EverythingPlayStation curator/manager:

I’ve been thinking for quite some time and couldn’t find a single flaw in the PlayStation’s first life. I think Sony has carried (if not improved upon) the same level of quality, commitment, and community that has derived from the PS brand over to each generation. Take the DualShock, for example: it’s small, compact, and an awesome extra experience of rumble added to games. Nowadays, with the DualShock 3, the quality and rumble are better, and it’s wireless, to boot. Or multimedia capabilities: the PSX had games and CD playback?! No other machine had combined these two before. The PS3 today is renowned for its home entertainment experience – Blu-ray, DVD, CD, SACD, and PlayStation and PlayStation 2 original model playback, along with a multitude of USB ports and a card reader on the first, fat models. And then there’s the aforementioned video store, Hulu (in the US), and PlayTV. It’s the all-in-one system.

The online community is free and contains millions to play with or against, along with hundreds of titles that appeal to everyone – it’s perfect for the PlayStation Network that Sony longed for. Want more? Try PS Plus. Don’t want to? Don’t. You shouldn’t have a compulsory fee to pay yearly on top of the moderate amount spent on the console and games themselves.

PlayStation is how you want it. A particular game you want? PlayStation’s got it. A friendly, massive online community to play or just simply chat with? PlayStation’s got it.

The original PlayStation is the crown of the Sony brand. It has provided the backbone to the awe-inspiring games that we experience today, and, without it, we couldn’t have the flexibility of the next-gen console we adore and use today.

Thanks, PSX.