We know. Oh, yes, we know… and that is half the battle.

The other half is a good start.

Oh, yes, it is…

Parjanya Holtz
Senior Editor
Everyone who has been working with and/or for TPS at some point in his or her “career” knows that Marc N. Kleinhenz not only is a hopeless Nintendo fanboy (who sprawls within the realms of a bewildering love/hate relationship with Sony), but he’s also a witch and, henceforth, proud owner of a mysterious crystal ball. To put this into some context, MNK has both successfully predicted that by 2012 California won’t be smart (safe) to live in (which, understandably, is part of the reason why he abhors the idea of living in the Sunshine State so much) and spoiled the next Twilight movie for half the staff. (Except for Aram and Andy, who both had already read the book.)

So, why are we gathering here for yet another group discussion? The answer is simple: Marc likes to see us make fools of ourselves. While he knows what’s going to happen, we speculate wildly on what the new year will have in store for our beloved videogames.

With Sony celebrating the PS3’s fifth – and Microsoft, the 360’s sixth – birthday in 2011, one would think that this hardware generation is about to begin losing its momentum. However, one quick glance at the PS3’s (scheduled) lineup for next year should make every Sony fanboy dance his own name. So what do I predict besides Sony delivering the system’s strongest list of games to date? How about the PSP2 and the PSPhone? Both make absolute sense looking at the most recent developments on the market(s) (the PSPhone will go up against the iPhone, and the PSP2 against the 3DS), plus all the rumors and “leaked” images of both systems popping up on every blog these days pretty much confirm that it won’t be long until we will hear of both. E3 2011. Any doubts?

My other “major” prediction is the surprise unveiling and release of a new independent property that will be exclusive to the PS3. All of Sony’s new IPs have become major successes, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they felt comfortable enough to give a studio like Ready at Dawn a shot at creating an entirely new franchise that’s once again exclusive to the PS3. Actually, thinking about the talk I had with Dana Jan [the God of War: Ghost of Sparta game director], I am pretty convinced that it’ll be them becoming Sony’s next big second-party PS3 developer.

I also predict the unveiling of a Wii HD, which will likely be less of a successor and more of a fully backward compatible “pro” version of the current generation Wii — actually quite similar to Sony’s and Microsoft’s redesigns, but with a few more system-enhancing hardware upgrades. The Wii 2 will probably not be unveiled before E3 2012, alongside the PS4 and Xbox 3.

What do you guys think?

Marc N. Kleinhenz
Features Editor
There will be no Wii HD. Nintendo is following a traditional, old-school philosophy with their systems – just one per generation, thank you very much – and they’ll jump right to the Wii Too (yes, I really do think it’ll be called that). It’s more than likely that Nintendo will “announce” it at next year’s E3, just as they tipped their hand in regards to the Revolution and its Virtual Console at E3 2005, with a full blowout at and release for ‘12. Whether or not the Xbox 720 ships the same year is unknown, although extremely likely.

Another prediction: all three next-gen systems will launch with cameras to complement their packed-in motion controls (and, possibly, their pack-in traditional controls).

One last one: at least a quarter of the 2011 PS3 exclusives, such as The Last Guardian and, just possibly, SOCOM 4, will get delayed until ‘12.

Kyle Heimbigner
Staff Writer
I see The Last Guardian actually finally coming out in 2011. I think we’ll see a lot of it at E3, and then it’ll have a Christmas release. But, yeah, ‘11 is looking to be what ‘10 should have been for Sony. The first half of this year was strong, but Sony’s Christmas has been very disappointing – unless you wanted the PlayStation Move, and even then you are still waiting until 2011 for the good motion games. LittleBigPlanet 2 will be the game everyone talks about next year, too, I think, along with Killzone 3. Most likely, though, LBP2 will get all of the attention – until Uncharted 3 comes out. There is really nothing from Microsoft next year that really makes the 360 stand out like Sony’s lineup of games does.

Aram Lecis
Señor Editor
My first prediction is that there is no way it will be called “Wii Too.” That’s way too clever for Nintendo. It will actually be called SDNES, for Super Duper Nintendo Excrement System.

While I do not think we will even see a reveal of a new console in 2011 (maybe from Microsoft, but even that I sorta doubt), I think Paji is right on with the PSP2 for sure. Maybe there will finally be the PSPhone, but even if such a thing does come to pass, I see it going the way of the Microsoft Kin, and I’d be amazed if it did as well as an N-Gage. Sorry – iPhone has that platform on lockdown, and Droid picks up the slack for those nonconformists that now hate Apple as some big, faceless conglomeration that must be stopped (oh, how the tides have turned).

Game-wise, things look a little grim for 2011 right now. Yes, there is a spate of sequels to highly regarded games, but there is a dearth of new IP, and that makes me a sad gamer. I’m not denying that there can be excellent sequels, but you are still just playing a refinement of an existing game, and as I am an aging product of a society that celebrates short attention spans, it is very hard for a sequel to keep me gripped or get me excited. Still, there are always a few surprises that come out of nowhere to be really good games (like Darksiders in 2010), so I’m betting there is something out there. I am excited about Twisted Metal, which clever readers will point out is another sequel… but when you haven’t put out a full console game in almost 10 years, then a sequel is okay.

My only other thought is that we will probably see a decline in the 3D push by late in 2011 (and perhaps motion controls, too), barring someone coming up with an actual “killer app” that makes 3D (and motion) anything more than a gimmick that adds nothing to the gameplay. I’m probably wrong, but I should be right.

Sam Bishop
Editor-in-chief
Oho, I want to get in on this!

I’ll steer clear of new hardware predictions (though the PSP2 is real and the PSPhone is a PlayStation device only in our clever little naming convention-making minds and is an Android device first with the option to play select downloaded PlayStation titles), but I’ll insist this will be the last full-blown year where everyone’s still fully committed to their home hardware (okay, maybe just MS and Sony). We’ll likely see the best-looking, most refined, and most expanded game concepts of the generation in 2011, with 2012 serving as sort of the swan song for our lovable black brick. There’ll be a price drop to $200 to get hardware sales moving at a pace deserving of easily the most impressive year in terms of sheer software output.

3D has definitely become something of a pratfall for Sony. While I love that games are leading the content charge (seriously, I think there’s, like, 20 times more 3D games than there are TV programming and Blu-rays combined), it’s clear that the tech cannot be bolted onto an existing engine and just left at that. Games need to be made for 3D first, and ideally with Move thrown in there, too, to properly show off an interface that uses all the space in front of the player in more than just waggle ways. I think we may see some interesting experiments in both tech, but until they’re standard in the PS4 and every HDTV out there is also a 3DTV (which will absolutely happen in the next few years), it’s a tough sell for all the performance hit and extra dev time it would take to make a “real” 3D game. I fully expect someone like Kojima to really do it all justice in the next few years, and I can’t wait.

I’d say most of the stuff hitting with definite dates already (like Uncharted 3) will stick to their dates. The Last Guardian is very likely an early 2012 game. I just don’t see it making it this year, but E3 is going to be insane. There’s still a lot of stuff that’s unannounced so far (like Lightbox’s Warhawk follow-up), and there will definitely be a full hardware reveal of the PSP2, so I’m pumped. I don’t mind all the sequels right now; this is the point in every hardware cycle where devs leverage the experience and continued refinements to their engines to make the games rather than the tech, and I think we may see plenty of games with the numeral three after them hitting, but they’ll be hands-down the best of their franchises.

When we start to head into new hardware next year (and that’s 2012, at the earliest), that’s the time for devs to start creating new IPs, and Sony has shown that its first-party studios don’t mind making huge leaps into something new. For now, I’m happy to just enjoy the continued price breaks and advances to familiar gameplay and franchises that the end of a hardware cycle entails.

Aram Lecis
Señor Editor
I WANT MY NEW GAMES YOU SHUT UP!

Sam Bishop
Editor-in-chief
I WANT THEM TOO BUT I ALSO WANT STARHAWK AND G-POLICE AND COLONY WARS AND OH GOD I CAN’T STOP TYPING IN CAPS SOMEONE HEEEEEEELP ME!

(Also, yeah, the PSN has sort of emerged as its own half-platform, and that definitely seems to be the most fruitful germination point for new ideas – and that’s not a bad way to do it, really. Less risk, possibly better rewards.)

Marc N. Kleinhenz
Features Editor
I actually think we’ll see a $199 PS3 (and, of course, Xbox 360) at the end of next year, as opposed to ‘12, but – hey – I was wrong about a price drop for the Wii this year, so who knows.

If we don’t see cheaper systems this coming year… then when will the manufacturers introduce the 512-bit systems? Unless, of course, they all take the PS2 route, with the first several years of the new generation being slightly eaten by a more-productive-for-longer older gen?

Sam Bishop
Editor-in-chief
I’d honestly be surprised if we didn’t see E3 announcements of $200 and permanent bundles for the rest of the gen. Any extensions to current prices could be an attempt to offset R&D costs, but, most of the time, that’s all sunk in the hopes of getting it all back over the course of that gen.

Basically, it’s my guess that if prices hold past the middle of this year, tuck in for at least another full year of the current hardware. And, honestly, as much of a spaz as I am about new hardware reveals, I’m okay with a few more years. Let ‘em work out those motion control kinks to see what works and what doesn’t before we end up just grouping them into the next gen by default.

Daniel Hemsath
Features Freelancer
2011 and the future of gaming… let me peer into my crystal ball… I see… goldfish. Oh, wait… this is a fishbowl.

Seriously, though, I’m sure Nintendo will release an HD system, and I’m inclined to agree that it will be backwards-compatible with Wii games (GameCube, who knows) and feature a camera. It seems a little less “revolutionary” than the Wii was, in light of recent motion-gaming advances, but I suspect that Nintendo will embrace the audience introduced to gaming with the Wii, and still surprise us with a trick up their sleeves. The 3DS is already confirmed for 2011, but I think it’s going to be less successful than the DS was – until the inevitable price drop. It seems like too many “non-gamers” see the DS as a toy, not an interactive media device, like an iPhone. Parents won’t shell out $300 (or even $250) for a device that might make their six-year-old throw up; apparently, they might weigh the consequences if it were cheaper, I guess.

Back when the PS3 dropped in price to $300, I was dumbfounded. I couldn’t figure out how they could afford to do it. I heard they were losing money on every system made. So a drop to $200 sounds crazy – but videogames are a dynamic market. Technological advances come up with memory, production, etc. so fast that I doubt Sony really is losing money on the production of their consoles at this time. So, maybe, it’s not so implausible. For anyone who’s been holding out, $200 is the magic price. Heck, $300’s still a steal.

PlayStation Phone – knowing Sony, it’s guaranteed to release next year. Early reports suggest that it will be modeled after (or crafted from the bodies of) the PSP go, which isn’t surprising. After all, Sony has a way of reusing its technology until it catches on; take UMDs and their progenitor, the MiniDisc. But as for the PlayStation Phone’s audience? With iPhones, Droids, and even the Windows Phone 7, the market’s not just saturated, it’s underwater. Can the PSPhone remain competitive – or even dominant – in its arena?

And as far as the PSP2 goes, I’m sure we’ll see it in 2011, albeit as a holiday release. (Wouldn’t that be something?) I’m interested in seeing what really sets it apart from its competitor, aside from being very pretty, I’m sure. I’m honestly hoping it will push for a sophisticated DLC-oriented library, a la “apps,” or other Media Go-styled content; I believe that this is the future of portable gaming, not cartridges the size of postage stamps you’ll lose in-between the cushions of your couch.

And Microsoft? Sure, there’s Gears 3 and Forza 4 (which I’m sure will be Kinect-enabled and big sellers), but what else is there? Is Microsoft really that confident in Kinect that they feel they can coast on it? I can’t even see any significant Kinect games coming out next year that make this accessory a “must have” for 2011; even Child of Eden (which looks slick) is a bit niche. And while I don’t believe that we’ll hear of an Xbox 3 (or 720, depending on preference) or PS4 next year, I’m sure holiday 2011 will determine Microsoft’s future role in gaming – for better or worse – depending on which audience they embrace and which audience they take for granted.

Sam Bishop
Editor-in-chief
Just to chime in one last time on some of this, the PS3 was still losing just a few bucks per unit sold when the Slim dropped at $300, but this was quickly corrected and Sony has been making a profit on the system more or less since it launched. If they do drop to $200, it’ll likely be because they were able to move to a new fab size and maybe squeeze more into less space. Then again, at this point, they really can’t afford to slip any more. The PS2 is dead. The PSP is dead in the States, and the PS3 is chilling in a distant third here, too. I think any future pricing moves will be reactive rather than proactive, but I do still think we’ll see a $200 system. The software isn’t just there, it’s everywhere, so really the only thing holding back consumers seems to be the relative price difference versus the other systems. As long as that barrier is there, no talk of bundled Move controllers or Blu-ray playback is going to knock it down in consumers’ eyes. Two hundo certainly would.

And again, on the PSPhone (sorry I brought it up again), remember that it’s a Sony Ericsson device, not a Sony Computer Entertainment one. It has PlayStation functionality in limited download form, but it’s not a PSP and likely won’t carry the PlayStation name. Sony needs to keep that as pure as possible leading up to the reveal of the PSP2 around E3. The phone may do well (the Xperia devices have been doing okay, I believe), but it shouldn’t be judged by the same metric as normal PlayStation hardware. It won’t get that push, it won’t get that reveal, and (hopefully, in Sony’s mind, I’m sure) it won’t pull focus from the real PSP successor that’s waiting in the wings.

Parjanya Holtz
Senior Editor
Yeah, I think Sam pretty much has it figured out regarding the PSPhone. They want the PlayStation name out there tied to their Ericssons so those will do better, not the other way around. It’s more a marketing coup than a real noteworthy PlayStation release. (Remember, the old Sony Ericsson phones all used to have the PlayStation controller logo already in there, so the interconnection is not entirely new.) However, if they do it right, Sony Computer Entertainment could actually really profit from this. Minis need a push, and in the end it might actually help sell PSP(2)s.

I still stand by my prediction for 2012 being the big year for new console announcements/releases, not 2011, and I still think the Wii HD might actually happen. Nintendo probably sees the PS2 (and especially its later years) as an indicator of how the casual market can help make a console a tremendous success, which is why they’d be stupid not to keep the Wii around for a few more years (alongside the Wii 2). A redesigned HD version might be the way to go, unless they’re afraid it would take away momentum from the Wii 2. Or is their market dominance too frail to pull off such a Sony-ish move? Either way, all three major corporations have a lot of thinking to do regarding the future of their brands. As Sony painfully had to learn, a good start is half the race.

So how does the TPS staff feel about the Triple on its fourth anniversary? Do they, like me (Aram), lament the loss of some of the quirkier games we saw released regularly on the PlayStation 2? Or are we happy many of them found a home as downloadable titles on the PlayStation Network? Are there really six years left in this system, like Sony would have us believe? We gathered some of the staff around the DualShock 3-shaped conference table and pretended to listen to each others’ thoughts…

Aram Lecis
Señor Editor
Man, four years goes by fast. When the PS3 was born, so was my daughter, and much like having kids, I can’t remember what life was like before I had this black battleship. The ubiquitous console not only plays two generations of games, it has replaced the old Xbox as the media center of my world. I can watch Netflix movies, Vevo music videos, Hulu TV shows, and stream virtually any video file of my own straight to my TV with little effort. After a slow start, the PS3 is rife with great exclusive content and robust offerings on the PlayStation Store, which has become a haven of sorts for indie development houses. I’m not too ashamed to admit that the idea of Trophies is far more compelling to me than Achievement points ever were. Sony seems poised to deliver an almost unbelievable amount of exclusive content in the next six months. What’s not to love?

Well, for starters, I’m not drinking the Sony Kool-Aid when it comes to backward compatibility. I’m a subscriber to the theory that we could still have the ability to play last generation’s games – only Sony realized they could monetize those old titles again by locking us out and forcing us to buy remakes. Don’t get me wrong, I fully support remastering old titles, but we all know that it is a highly selective process, and many titles we consider “classics” will never get updated.

Which brings me to my other issue… where are this generation’s Disaster Reports and Katamari Damacys? (Yes, I realize there is a “new” Katamari game, but I am talking metaphorically, not literally here). One of the hallmarks of both the original PlayStation and the PlayStation 2 was the plethora of “non-traditional” games that graced their catalogs, many of which came from overseas. There has yet to be a Mister Mosquito or even a God Hand appearing in our stores. I appreciate that we can play most import games natively now, and I am pleased by the appearance of quirky little gems like Trash Panic and Noby Noby Boy gracing the PSN, but I miss those wacky, fully-translated titles like IllBleed. We still have time to reverse the trend, but my hopes are not high.

Parjanya Holtz
Senior Editor
I knew I was in love when I plugged in my PS3 for the first time and MotorStorm’s intro started playing. Neither my HDTV nor my surround sound system had ever been able to fully demonstrate their potential until that point. Admittedly, the Xbox 360 was a console that I only got my hands on after getting a PS3, so the technological leap from my beloved PS2 was quite the significant one.

I remember thinking, “Man, this is the future.” The irony is that it wasn’t. Sony’s online system was solid but nowhere near what the 360 offered with Xbox Live at the time. Many of the multiplatform titles were graphically inferior on Sony’s big black box, and we were told rumble was “last gen.” Fortunately, it didn’t take Sony long to realize that they had to look at what the competition was doing if they wanted to catch up – or even surpass them in the never-ending console wars.

With time, we were given the DualShock 3, Trophies, better third-party support, Netflix, the video store, and a lineup of exclusives that I think is far superior to that of the 360, and all of this coupled with the initial selling points of the PS3. There is no denying that Sony has allowed the PS3 to mature into a unique and sophisticated gaming machine that is just far more user-friendly than its competition.

But what’s so attractive is also a form of character that has grown around the system that I simply don’t see anywhere else. Kevin Butler is a pop-culture phenomenon, the PlayStation Blog has become one of the most charismatic “official” sources for gaming news on the web, and the unique option of being able to swap and upgrade your system’s harddrive any time are just a few of the reasons why I consider the PS3 the system of my choice. I truly believe that if Sony keeps up the hard work and eventually realizes that you can have both backwards compatibility and remastered originals alongside one another, the transition from the once-arrogant industry leader to maybe and arguably its most important asset is perfect. I, for one, can’t wait to see where the PlayStation brand goes from here.

Marc N. Kleinhenz
Features Editor
Well, if that brand future manifests itself in the form of PlayStation Portable Phones (PSPPs) and more wishy-washy initiatives like PlayStation Plus, I’m not quite certain that it will either be bright or that arrogant-less.

Kyle Heimbigner
Staff Writer
I didn’t get a PlayStation 3 until December of 2009, when all of the really good exclusives were out or were about to come out within the next three months or so. I had just bought a HDTV (50″ 1080p plasma <3), and Blu-ray was one of the first things I really wanted to try the TV out on. The PlayStation 3 was the only thing I could think of; I’ve always been a huge fan of Sony’s consoles – I loved the PlayStation 2 – and I had started hearing rumors of Gran Turismo 5 coming out soon (not surprisingly, I would have to wait an extra year for it!), so it was a no-brainer.

Looking at the list of exclusives, I knew I would love this system. Demon’s Souls, Uncharted 2, and Metal Gear Solid 4, at the time, were the games that really sold me. (Although I still need to give Demon’s Souls a proper play-through one of these days – I have only ever rented the game. ) The free online play is what sold me on the console, as well. I’ve noticed that those games whose online play is key really survive a long time on the PS3; their online communities keep going a lot longer than on the PC or Xbox 360. This was a major plus that I discovered shortly after getting the system.

Even though I originally mentioned that the strong Blu-ray capabilities were one of the top reasons for me getting a PS3, I have actually ended up only buying a handful of BR movies. With Netflix taking off big time in early 2010, along with other large streaming services providing HD content, there wasn’t a whole lot of reason to go with Blu-ray, it has turned out. The format is great, though, and I don’t see it going away anytime soon.

But, ultimately, the PlayStation 3 is such a strong gaming system that everything else is overshadowed by this fact. It just has the best exclusives available. While I am not always happy with the way Sony handles system updates and provides new features, the games are what is most important, and, in this regard, the PS3 delivers a lot better then anyone else. I’ve always been a fan of Sony’s consoles because they just simply stick to the most important aspects. Sometimes the little things get ignored by them or put aside for long periods of time, but when it comes to providing the most original game titles, they deliver every time – and that is what is really important to me when I am ready to spend my money on my favorite hobby.

Shaun Mason
TPS Mascot
The first time that I saw the PS3, I was blown away by the demos, videos, and launch lineup that looked like it was going to redefine the gaming industry. Then I saw the price, and I was definitely dismayed – while the games were going to be affordable, the launch systems were in the realm of the NeoGeo (an impressive system, technically, at the time, but an incredible failure). It felt like Sony had freely given up the dominance that they’d established over the PlayStation and PS2 years to Microsoft.

While some of the obvious gaffes, like realistic giant crabs and “Riiiiiiiiiiidge Racer!” became internet memes and cast doubt on the future of the system, Sony battled back in some of the ways it knows best – producing high-quality games. Titles like Resistance and MotorStorm were huge in rebuilding faith in the PlayStation fan community, and this was supported afterwards with incredibly solid hits over time: The Show has consistently been the best baseball series ever produced, LittleBigPlanet redefined user content, and God of War III blew users away with its storytelling.

Sony also managed to score a crucial victory in the format wars by trouncing HD-DVD and establishing Blu-ray as the successor to DVDs. Given Sony’s track record in backing formats (Betamax, anyone?), the win of Blu-ray was huge and was due, in part, to the fact that the player was central to every system. Sony gave consumers a system that could play their old DVDs but also gave them HD-quality new releases and games. The PS3 was a Swiss Army Knife that became the center of many a home entertainment system, and it’s hard to imagine sitting down and watching movies without it – whether that’s with a physical disc or streaming movies through Hulu or Netflix.

However, Sony still has done things that will make even the most die-hard fan scratch their head in confusion. While they have no problem touting the support of DVDs and Blu-rays, they completely eliminated backwards compatibility from post-launch systems. This was a huge selling point that helped Sony retain their fans over the years (and console generations) because fans didn’t feel as though they had to abandon their old game libraries. As someone that still has his old “George Foreman”-style PS3 with backwards compatibility, I will scream out my dissatisfaction with this decision ‘til my dying breath. Then I’ll come back from the grave and scream some more like a banshee.

It’s obvious that Sony decided that they could squeeze and bilk users out of more cash by offering digital versions of older games. However, there’s a large problem with this system: many of the games that are posted in the PS Store aren’t games that anyone wants to play. Personally, if I wanted to play Cool Boarders or Syphon Filter, I’d pull out my old PSX copies. But I don’t. Nor do I care about Rayman 2 or Dirt Jockey – if I did, I would’ve bought them years ago. I’d rather play SSX, MGS2, or DMC3, but those aren’t available in the Store. I applaud the repurposing of older games in collections – the God of War Collection is great, I’m sure that the Sly Collection is awesome (I’m looking forward to diving into that for Christmas), and the forthcoming Ico/Shadow Collection is sure to be unbelievable. But it’s taking far too long to produce these titles or post them on the Store for download

Another issue is that many of the games or genres that were mainstays for Sony aren’t there any longer. Sony used to host incredible RPGs and quirky games that captured the imagination of tons of gamers. Where are they? The PS Store seems to be the lone repository of these titles, like EchoChrome or PixelJunk Monsters.

Will Sony right the ship and reestablish its dominance in this generation? I hope so. Many people believe that the Move has better technology than the Kinect or Wii MotionPlus, and now that developers are starting to get comfortable with programming for the system, some of the truly unbelievable games for the console are on the horizon. However, it does seem like Sony needs a show-stopping string of games or piece of tech that Microsoft and Nintendo can’t match or equal – something that Kevin Butler could constantly Mon-Tage in commercials over and over. Since the whole “Marcus PSP” campaign seems dead, it’s time for the big VP of Everything Gaming to step up and lead the console into the gaming promised land.

Aram Lecis
Señor Editor
It really is a shame that the early years of the PS3 were essentially lost to the unexpected shadow of the Wii and the established dominance of the Xbox 360, a fate that was exacerbated by the aforementioned economically unfriendly pricing. I paid $700 for a 3DO back when it launched in 1993, but I couldn’t bring myself to purchase a PS3 until the price hit $400 – not just because I couldn’t afford one (somehow I can always find the money for something as important as videogames), but because there wasn’t a compelling console exclusive until Metal Gear Solid 4 came along. And even then, it was actually Flower that finally pushed me into purchasing one.

Since that time, my Wii has become merely fodder for my toddlers, and my Xbox 360 barely gets turned on (for which my ears thank me), as I have embraced the return to my true love, for whom I sincerely apologize for ignoring for those two years. I’m here with you on your fourth birthday, and I’ll be there for you when you turn 10 (if not you, then your newer, slimmer sister).

Apparently, at the beginning of the modern era of gaming, not much. Console manufacturers, not yet lured by the siren that is the fourth quarter of the year or dominated by the rigors and subtleties of “launch windows,” had an extremely flexible and wide-ranging spectrum of dates. Nintendo released its very first system in October (but only in New York; the rest of the country had to wait throughout the entirety of the following year) and chose July to ship the first iteration of the first Game Boy, while Sega used June as the birth month for its Master System. August, interestingly enough, emerged as the first momentous month for the industry, gaming’s original (and short-lived) November: the Genesis, TurboGrafx-16, and Super NES all hit store shelves within its 31 days. And even the first half of the year saw some action, with the Saturn (sort of) debuting in May.

The tradition of reserving Q4 as the exclusive grounds for system launches didn’t nominally start until Sony entered the arena, ten long and dynamic years later. (Technically, 3DO and Atari beat the Japanese electronics giant to the punch, releasing the 3DO in October and the Jaguar in November of 1993, but their consoles are mere footnotes – literally – in the annals of gaming history.) After the PSX, PS2, and PS3 were shipped in September, October, and November, respectively, manufacturers clung to the merry month of November like vultures to a snowbound carcass: the Xbox saw release on the 15th; the PS3, the 17th; the GameCube and the Game Boy Color, the 18th; the Wii, the 19th; the DS, the 21st; and the Xbox 360, the 22nd. Hell, even non-hardware – or, at least, non-system – launches have favored the eleventh month of the year, with Microsoft in particular leading the charge; it started Xbox Live (on the 15th), debuted Xbox Live Arcade (the 3rd), introduced the New Xbox Experience (the 19th), and, most recently, unleashed Kinect (the 19th once more) all in November.

MARCH
PSP – 03.24.05

JUNE
GBA – 06.11.01

JULY
Game Boy – 07.31.89

AUGUST
Genesis – 08.14.89
Super NES – 08.23.91

SEPTEMBER
PlayStation – 09.09.95
Nintendo 64 – 09.29.96
Dreamcast – 09.09.99

OCTOBER
NES – 10.18.85
PlayStation 2 – 10.26.00

NOVEMBER
Xbox – 11.15.01
PlayStation 3 – 11.17.06
GameCube – 11.18.01
Wii – 11.19.06
DS – 11.21.04
Xbox 360 – 11.22.05

The sole exception to this ad hoc tradition, interestingly enough, comes in the form of handheld systems. Although Nintendo shipped the GBC and DS in the fourth quarter, the Game Boy Advance was in June, while the PSP was, bizarrely, in March. And lest a first-quarter release be seen as being too unusual (or, apparently, unique), the big N has already indicated that the 3DS, its fourth portable, will similarly hit shelves in March of next year.

This latter and latest development may have something to do with the still-burgeoning trend of software publishers treating Q1 as the new Q4, or it may simply be a by-product of end-of-fiscal-year book balancing – or, most mundane yet, the manifestation of assembly-line realities – but it nevertheless sends the same signal: as the videogame industry continues to grow and solidify its presence as a major, not to mention permanent, fixture in the entertainment panorama, it needs to rely less and less on the seasonal, toy-purchasing surge of November, generating instead its own momentums at any arbitrary point in the calendar year.

As the market finishes growing up, in other words, it’s heading back to its adolescent stomping grounds.

The backstory:

The Sony PlayStation has turned 15, and a grand celebration of remembrances past has been had by all. But while the questions of legacies and seminal experiences have been weighed and expounded upon, there is still much to be covered and debated – particularly in regards to the (controversial) history-in-the-making that is the PSP and the PS3.

The players:

James Holdsworth
EverythingPlayStation.com

Peter Chapman
TheSixthAxis.com

Chris Kuspis
PSNStores.com

Allen Tyson
PlayStationLifeStyle.net

Marc N. Kleinhenz, TotalPlayStation features editor:

What was your first exposure to the system? How and why did you pick it up?

James Holdsworth, EverythingPlayStation curator/manager:

For me, I received the PSX as a Christmas gift. This new, revolutionary turning point in gaming had arrived and I was hyped to get my hands on it and simply play! At the time, I was rather partial to and owned most driving games. One of my favourites of the genre was World’s Scariest Police Chases. I was stunned by the graphics and visuals that the PSX had published and also just the basis of the game; it was fun and unique, attempting a sub-genre of games that had never really been delved into before. There was no other console of the likes around the PlayStation’s era; this is why it appealed to the masses, and this is why it grew outstandingly well in gamers’ homes.

Peter Chapman, TheSixthAxis site editor:

I think that, for me, it was a natural progression following my years with the Mega Drive (Genesis in the States) and friends’ Super NESes. I remember that I had really wanted the Sega Saturn, but it released in the summer, too early for my birthday or Christmas, so I couldn’t get it. I can’t remember why I changed my mind and decided against the Saturn, but I remember feeling like a traitor for switching brands from Sega, who I had been a big advocate for in those 16-bit console wars!

I had a crappy weekend job in a restaurant, and I saved my share of the tips to buy my first PSX around Christmas ‘95. Mostly, it was used socially to play fighting, racing, and football games with friends, but it wasn’t long before I got familiar with the rental section at the video store and expanded my PlayStation horizons.

Chris Kuspis, PSNStores editor-in-chief:

My friends got the PlayStation before my family did; since we had gotten an N64 recently, my parents didn’t see the reason to buy another one at the time. So I would go over to my friend Jordan’s house and play that X-Games game. We loved to tear it up down the streets of San Francisco on the luges. Eventually, my younger brother ended up getting a bundle for his birthday one year – I think it was the one with a Crash Bandicoot bundled with it, and some DualShock controllers. I was really amazed that you didn’t need to put a huge Rumble Pak in the controller for it to rumble! I was hooked to the PlayStation brand since then.

Allen Tyson, PlayStationLifeStyle contributor:

My first exposure to the system was actually from EGM. I remember picking up an issue a month or two before launch and feasting my eyes on what would be taking over my time for the next month: Ridge Racer. Ironically, I wasn’t that big of a racing fan, but seeing those smooth graphics, images of cars drifting, and knowing that an arcade type of experience could be in my living room had my attention. I kept staring at those images, re-reading the article, and thinking, “No way the game can look that good.” I jumped online, looked at images, and watched a video of it in action and it captivated me – a complete and total non-racing guy. I headed to Software, Etc. (now defunct) and found a demo kiosk with Ridge Racer running, and I was hooked. It was unlike anything I had ever seen. I was working nights then, so I had the store to myself. I felt like I had blinked, looked at my watch, and an hour had gone by. I pulled out my debit card and did a pre-order on the spot.

It was at that point that I did my first bit of social engineering without even really know it. As the launch date approached, I started to get a little bit nervous about games and peripherals selling out. I went to back to the Software, Etc. where I had pre-ordered my console two days before launch. I was told that, if I wanted to, I could buy Ridge Racer and an extra controller, so I went ahead and did it to easy my paranoia. I had to stop by Target and buy something, and here is where the social engineering came in (not quite as cool as getting free pizza for life Kevin Rose-style, but close). I walked back to the electronics area and saw in the locked display case the unthinkable: two PSX units just sitting there!

I casually asked the young lady behind the counter, “Hey what’s that?”

“Some guy thing, but nobody has gotten it,” she replied. I, trying to be as cool as a 00 agent, said, “It looks cool – I’ll get one.” She grabbed a manager – at this point I thought the plan was foiled – and he quickly came over, seeming extremely busy, opened it up, and walked away. I purchased it as quick as possible, asked her for a giant bag so I could cover up the box, and then ran for the door like Ethan Hunt leaving Langley. I cancelled my pre-order that afternoon. I spent the next 16 hours between food, breaks, and the occasional nap playing. After thinking it can’t get any better than this, I received a call from Software, Etc. reminding me they had put Battle Arena Toshinden on hold just in case. I snatched that one up, and there went another 12 hours.

I remember being totally exhausted but having this sense that I was a part of something special – like my sister told me about when Pong came out. Who knew 15 years later I would be reminiscing about it…?

Marc N. Kleinhenz, TotalPlayStation features editor:

It seems to me that Sony made fewer mistakes, ironically enough, with its first system than with either of its successors; it’s as if the accumulation of success as a videogame developer and the condensation of multimedia functionality as a content producer ballooned the company’s ego to the point that it thought (a) it could topple Nintendo in the handheld market with a hideously expensive portable and (b) that it could release a hideously expensive console and not lose any business in the transition. There is a purity with the PlayStation that, (once again) to me, is missing from the PS2, PSP, and PS3.

Thoughts? Comments? Death threats?

Peter Chapman, TheSixthAxis site editor:

I think that the first iteration of the PlayStation brand was more focused purely because they were simpler times. There was no networking to deal with because we barely had the World Wide Web in 1995. That meant no online system, no media streaming, no mass storage required. The inclusion of a memory card system was considered quite the advancement, never mind the hard disks, USB sticks, and cloud storage that we all take for granted now.

With the original PlayStation, Sony made a box which read data from CD-ROMs, already a common media, and put that data on your TV via RCA or SCART leads. You plugged a (completely digital) controller into the front. Remember when the shoulder buttons were just buttons? Now they’re triggers and they’re analogue, along with most other buttons on a DualShock 3. It was easier to get it right and to make it cheaper.

That being said, I do think a certain degree of complacency set in for Sony. The massive success of the PlayStation 2, topping the achievements of its predecessor, seems to have made them think they were more resilient to competition than they turned out to be. The PSP, in particular, has been a disaster on many levels. In spite of being a great little system, it was almost killed by piracy and the constant firmware arms race to keep it secure. That killed off a lot of publisher interest, and the system suffers from a limited catalogue. Then the overly expensive PSP go locked in overly expensive digital downloads and limited the software selection even further. I think that’s the next big battleground for Sony: the portable. They need to get the PSP2 just right or they will be forced out of the handheld market altogether.

Allen Tyson, PlayStationLifeStyle contributor:

I think this is an interesting question. I see this from two different views that ultimately end up at the same place…

When I think of the PSX launch – the marketing, the games that Sony displayed – I think there was a much clearer message about that direction the console was going to take. There was a singular focus about their entry into the console market, the tech involved, and its ability to double as a CD player, which was a huge bonus. Potential buyers were captivated by (in my opinion) all those things I just mentioned, this crazy-looking-yet-accessible logo, and the – perhaps if only in the back of their minds – security they were getting from purchasing from a brand known the world over. Sony was in the game space, but they were in so many other spaces, and the message was strong; the thought was, “Let’s give it a try,” despite the price… and it was a huge success.

Sony entered the PS2 market as the dominant force in consoles, and they were, at the time, driving the direction of where the console future was headed. When the PS2 came out, things changed a little bit. I think the message wasn’t quite as clear, but clear enough to be understood by the general public, who knew what the PSX had done. The thought of a combo device that played DVDs, that played CDs, and that would deliver graphics far and away beyond the PSX was captivating. Throw in backwards compatibility and network support, and you had surefire winner, right? True, the PS2 was extremely expensive for a console, but the branding was so strong, and they had produced results in the past which resulted in yet another success. Things changed with the PS3.

Being a year behind the Xbox 360 hurt Sony tremendously. Microsoft started doing things in a social space that Sony hadn’t really done previously. They launched a true next-gen console and, in their own way, told the market, “Walk this way.” Some might say it was arrogance on Sony’s part because of past success, or others might say that it was a market leader simply trying to move the industry the way they had always done; the result was that the PS3 was put in the catch-up position from the moment it launched. I go back to message again here: the PS3’s message was hard to grasp initially for a lot of gamers and non-gamers. The price point was extremely high for a console, there was this push about the Cell processor and technology that nobody really understood, there was talk of Blu-ray being the future, digital downloads, all these things, to a core gamer, that weren’t the reason why you bought a console – you bought it for the games, and there was less talk of that and more about the hardware. In retrospect, would we be where we are now, without those hard choices? No. Would Blu-ray be the dominant format? No. Paramount and Warners did have a lot to do with that last one, but without the potential market of film purchases increasing with the PS3, who knows what would have happened – it was a real dog-fight going back to VHS versus Beta, or DVD versus DIVX, take your pic. Would games like Uncharted, Uncharted 2, and Killzone 3 be possible with that investment in the Cell? Perhaps, but not in the same way we have them today. Making all those tough decisions early now gives Sony credibility when they say they have a 10-year lifecycle. But it was a long, hard road to get here, and you can’t argue that some gamers went the 360 route. I think right now, Sony makes the strongest value proposition, in most respects, as the console to purchase. A lot of those early 360 owners, facing the decision to upgrade their 360 or go Sony, might just be going Sony…

The PSP is, I think, a completely different conversation, and one that is tough to quantify. You have a powerful gaming system, capable of producing the best graphics in the handheld market at the time of its release. Integration with the PS3 via things like remote play was slow in coming, but it arrived and performed well. The PSP has a great lineup of titles, some of which will go down in history as being the best games of our generation. It’s still profitable, still selling units, and developers like Square Enix are putting triple-A titles on it. The price was more expensive than the competition, but at the same time, you were getting a lot more right out of the gate; it was billed as the Walkman of the next generation. I don’t think it was arrogance on Sony’s part, but it’s hard to supplant Nintendo in a market they have truly locked down. They really, for lack of a better term, “get” the handheld market because they have been in it for so long. Being a pop-culture guy, things just pop in my head; when I was writing this, I couldn’t help thinking of what Apollo Creed said to Rocky Balboa in Rocky III when he’s training him for the rematch with Clubber Lang. Apollo says: “You wanna lay up in the hospital for five weeks this time? You thought I was tough – this chump will kill you.”

I am being dramatic, I know, but the fight Sony took in the console market was nothing like what they were in for on the handheld side, and I don’t know if they realized just what it would take to dominate that market. An argument could be made that it wasn’t their intent to dominate it – it was to simply compete and take a market share away from Nintendo. And that they did. In that sense, it’s a successful venture. The PSP just hit at a really difficult time, tech-wise. Had it launched a year early, that might have helped solidify it more as the Walkman of the new generation. Cellular technology, mobile devices, all these things were starting to integrate more and more functionality. Devices like the iPhone and the Droid started to position themselves as the all-in-one device to have, even adding bite-sized gaming like PSP Minis. Since Nintendo never really marketed themselves as anything more than primarily a game device, it put them in direct competition, but not quite as direct as Sony. I view the market sometimes as a tornado; just when you think you have an idea where it’s going, it can suddenly shift, and you’re left scratching your head. Sony attempted to drive the market in a certain direction, as it had done in the past (I think), and the tech market just shifted on them faster than they could react to it.

Going forward, the cell-phone/gaming/handheld market is converging in a big way, and I know Sony has a plan; I just don’t know it is. They have done some extremely innovative things, and they seem to have a better handle on the handheld market now than when they first entered it. I don’t think it’s going to be possible to dethrone Nintendo, but number two isn’t a bad place to be…

There was this long period of time without a next-gen Sony console, but that was okay, because it was said again and again on forums, “Just wait ‘til that PS3 hits.” When it arrived, people were expecting Sony to outdo themselves, which didn’t happen right away – for example, the price point was higher than any other console.

James Holdsworth, EverythingPlayStation curator/manager:

I’ve been thinking for quite some time and couldn’t find a single flaw in the PlayStation’s first life. I think Sony has carried (if not improved upon) the same level of quality, commitment, and community that has derived from the PS brand over to each generation. Take the DualShock, for example: it’s small, compact, and an awesome extra experience of rumble added to games. Nowadays, with the DualShock 3, the quality and rumble are better, and it’s wireless, to boot. Or multimedia capabilities: the PSX had games and CD playback?! No other machine had combined these two before. The PS3 today is renowned for its home entertainment experience – Blu-ray, DVD, CD, SACD, and PlayStation and PlayStation 2 original model playback, along with a multitude of USB ports and a card reader on the first, fat models. And then there’s the aforementioned video store, Hulu (in the US), and PlayTV. It’s the all-in-one system.

The online community is free and contains millions to play with or against, along with hundreds of titles that appeal to everyone – it’s perfect for the PlayStation Network that Sony longed for. Want more? Try PS Plus. Don’t want to? Don’t. You shouldn’t have a compulsory fee to pay yearly on top of the moderate amount spent on the console and games themselves.

PlayStation is how you want it. A particular game you want? PlayStation’s got it. A friendly, massive online community to play or just simply chat with? PlayStation’s got it.

The original PlayStation is the crown of the Sony brand. It has provided the backbone to the awe-inspiring games that we experience today, and, without it, we couldn’t have the flexibility of the next-gen console we adore and use today.

Thanks, PSX.

So EGM shutting down wasn’t all that surprising. After all, it would be a little crowded, but at least the 1UP Network offices would now have even more staff to help pump out the kind of features that have made 1UP one of the best places to get, well, magazine-style and -level features.

Instead, it was eventually revealed that not only would EGM be closing up shop, but almost the whole of the 1UP Network (read: 1UP, GameTab, GameVideos and MyCheats) was, effective more or less immediately, being sold off to Hearst Media-owned UGO (remember them from the late ’90s?). Worse still, the video and podcast teams were getting the axe, to say nothing of tons of friends and long-time Ziffers that were full-time editorial staff.

The longer things have gone on and the more various Twitter and blog accounts have been updated, the more it’s become clear this is a full-on gutting, meaning even more people in addition to the recent folks over at C|Net that got canned (among them one of my current roommates) will be joining the pool of job-seeking formerly full-time industry workin’ folk. I’ve been somewhat fortunate in that I have a semi-steady stream of freelance, and I’ve been living off that for going on about five years now in addition to running this site. I’m used to being broke, but with the economy in the shitter, suddenly the so-called “recession-proof” games industry seems a whole lot more prone to reacting to the bucks and fits and starts that the economy has been in the throes of for a while now.

Whenever the inevitable severence packages dry up, if a solid number of well-paying freelance gigs or full-time positions elsewhere haven’t happened, some very good friends are going to be in a very bad way. I pray this doesn’t happen, and I wish every last person affected by the Hearst buyout the best of luck in finding something new — and soon. If for some reason they’d like to blow off some steam by reviewing a shitty game here on this itty bitty site, I’ll be happy to supply it. I won’t be able to supply that much-needed cash, but sometimes it’s nice to be able to just say what you mean without fear that you’ll ruin a relationship with a publisher; you can’t lose what you don’t have!

In all seriousness, though, my prayers and best wishes are with the folks that are likely still reeling from the shock. Something tells me Steff’s is awfully packed right now…

It’s no secret that hard drives are getting bigger and people are becoming more technologically astute, as well as internet savvy. Fifteen years ago, the internet was a foreign monster to many households, but now it’s a way of life. It’s even extended itself to portable devices, the smallest of which can barely squeeze a couple lines of text on the screen from our favorite website. But that doesn’t stop us.

As it becomes easier for us to connect to the internet, it only makes sense that it would be easier for us to get content into our homes. Enter iTunes. Though it was hardly the first, it is one of, if not THE largest of all the online music distributors out there. Ten years ago, the idea of downloading entire music albums, TV shows, and movies was a pipe dream, but now we can do it with the click of a button. And storage space is becoming less of an issue, whereas ten years ago we were forced to burn everything to CD-Rs.

Even with that in mind, there is no definitive way to get that content. Consumers can use a myriad of choices, ranging from the Apple TV, a somewhat elegant solution, to Net Flix, which also offers a myriad of choices for the consumer, but none offer the fullest range of content or ease of use that would truly help download only technology go mainstream. Plug and Play this is not.

There are also other issues, most notably those of the hardcore variety. For those who demand the most out of their equipment, HD over the net doesn’t come close to a Blu-ray Disc running in the PS3. High fidelity picture and sound is a must when one invests thousands of dollars in equipment that is meant to deliver an eyeball melting, ear massaging experience.

But, if the equipment were in place, would the physical media experience matter to a consumer who still awkwardly attaches composite cables to their brand new flat screen LCD or plasma?

Sam and I arrived at a crossroads in our discussion. He supported the idea of physical media, stating that the utmost quality, as well as the sleek packaging, will always maintain mindshare in the mainstream. There’s also the notion that, as a species, we like to collect “things” to show off. I, however, believe downloads will be the future, with people purchasing a few physical discs a year of their favorite shows, and downloading or streaming the rest.

Granted, in the current consumer level environment what I envision is far from possible. But the push to broadband, and even wideband, could change all of that.

Location also plays a huge part in the download push, as a country’s internet infrastructure will dictate whether its citizens have the necessary bandwith to download large files quickly. Asia, with its dense populations, have infrastructures that far outstrip those of the western world, mostly especially Japan. With China and India becoming burgeoning world economies, it would only make sense to provide high speed internet access that even North America might not see for another decade. Huge population centers, as well as spending habits, determines content delivery and China and India may affect that delivery scheme in the next decade.

Combined, we could see a download only push in a little under a decade. The possibilities are endless.

So what do you think, fine readers: will download only be the future or will physical media still maintain its place? Let us know!

You may know me as Senior News Editor Warren Stallworth, the same guy who brings you daily updates on all things PlayStation. Well, it’s a little known fact that I’m also something of a Community Manager around these parts and part of that community management is putting a little something on this here blog page every now and again. We’re shooting for weekly updates, Saturdays being the most opportune day of the week to jot down some thoughts. I plan to stick to that schedule and give you guys something to read while you’re busy blasting, racing, or questing with each other on the weekends.

I wanted to open with a little something about myself but I figured that would be boring to read. I’m just like any other gamer out there: started gaming at a young age with my console of choice (Nintendo Entertainment System was my drug back then), toyed a little bit with online gaming before the MMORPG explosion, and fell in love with Sony around the middle of the PlayStation 2 era. I like to write (obviously) and I like gaming, so I figured I’d try combining the two and that led me to TPS.

Now that introductions are out of the way, we can get to the real meat of this entry: the future of console gaming. I’ve recently been having discussions with fellow gamers about how much gaming they get to do in a typical week. My peers are all over the age of twenty-five, so we have families and other obligations, and many times gaming gets pushed into the background. Some of my peers haven’t played their consoles (old gen or new gen) in weeks or even months, while others get an hour or two a day. Since graduating college or high school, none of us have been able to do marathon sessions like the old days.

As for myself, I play games for review. With my busy schedule, I typically play one game a week and unwind with a little World of Warcraft on the weekends. I still don’t put in any marathon sessions and I have a back catalog of games that truly are a closest of shame. I’d rather not think about all of the RPGs I’ve started and never finished.

Allow me to go off on a tangent for a moment; what I have to say is relevant to our discussion, I promise. It’s no secret that Sony won the next generation format war. Blu-ray is king… well, if you don’t count DVD. This works in Sony’s favor, since HD TV adoption rates will pick up sometime after February 2009 and folks will be looking for a fancy HD Disc player to hook up to their new fancy HD TV. Granted, if the PlayStation 3 doesn’t come down in price, that won’t be flying off the shelves the way PS2 did for those folks who wanted a DVD player, but at least Sony will do well for themselves with standard Blu-ray players. But therein lies the problem… if PS3 isn’t the AV equipment of choice for next generation players, will the mass market snatch it up the way hardcore gamers do?

Why is this important? Because, as a mobile society, we’re spending less and less time in front of our TVs and more time on the road with friends, commuting to work, or traveling. We’ve traded in our land lines for cellphones and our desktop computers for iPhones and laptops. Wouldn’t that also mean we’ve traded in our consoles for portable devices? Maybe.

A quick glance at Japanese sales charts quickly reveals the reality of that statement: Nintendo DS has sold more in its short lifetime than PlayStation 2 sold over the course of its seven years. The greatest console system of all-time was beaten out by a portable system that still hasn’t run out of steam. People are getting their gaming fix in smaller, bit sized pieces. Granted, that’s Japan and not the United States or Europe, but when the North American NPD’s reveal that Nintendo DS handily sells upwards of 500k a month during the slow season, something has to be up.

What of the PlayStation Portable? It’s selling. In fact, it’s picked up steam in Japan as the multimedia player of choice. People aren’t spending time in their homes watching media, they’re on the subway or out and about doing it instead, which means they aren’t buying PlayStation 3’s to either watch or play that media.

There are other factors involved and we would be here all day if I listed them. But portable gaming is becoming more important than console gaming. I believe this generation, regardless of how any company wants to paint it, will be far smaller than either of the previous two. To the vast majority, consoles just aren’t that important anymore.

But of course console gaming isn’t dead and that’s not what this is about. Did movie theaters die when home video tapes were introduced? No. But it changed the way Hollywood pushed film. More movies are either going straight to video or spending less time at the box office so the studios can capitalize on DVD sales. It doesn’t marginalize the box office, but it makes it seem a little less important than it was in our grandparents time.

So I pose a question to all of you: how often do you play your console systems and how often do you play your portables? Let us know and have a pleasant weekend!